Sunday Soaker and Severe

When you hit 81 degrees in December, you know that any transition to a colder pattern isn't going to be easy.  We really need everyone to stay weather aware Sunday.

I think heavy rain and flooding will be likely across western and northern Arkansas Saturday night into Sunday.  River flooding will become an major issue as well.

A strong boundary will sag to the sough throughout Sunday as a new wave of low pressure develops over Texas and pushes to the north-northeast.  The atmosphere will become unstable Sunday afternoon and evening, especially for areas across southern Arkansas.  Maybe as far north as Little Rock.  The main threat will be heavy rain and damaging winds.  We will also have to watch for the possibility for a tornado or two.

This video goes into more specifics.

Storm Update

This video goes over the storm potential Wednesday PLUS Christmas and the big rain maker heading our way this weekend.

Very Unsettled Pattern Developing

We'll have at least 3 rounds of rain/storms over the next week with mostly mild temperatures.  As a matter of fact, this Christmas COULD rank in the top 5 warmest since records were kept.  That goes back to the 1870s in Little Rock.

This video goes over

• Rain/Storms threat Tuesday night and Wednesday morning.  Some strong.
• Christmas Eve details
• Warming temperatures all day long and night Christmas Day with rain chances.
• Very strong storm system to impact our region Saturday the 26th into Monday the 28th.

Winter Weather Contest Entries 2015-2016

http://www.tristatewhywait.com/

It's finally here!  The time has come to get your submissions in ASAP for winter weather contest.  This year, we are happy to have Tri-State Water Power and Air as our sponsor.

This year the grand prize is a professional home weather station from Ambient Weather.  The WS-1001 is solar powered and wireless with WiFi remote monitoring.  I have one of these at my house and I absolutely love it.  It automatically uploads all your data and stores it.  You can view the current conditions on your smart phone.  The prize is valued at almost $300.

Also, thanks to the great people at RadarScope. The winner will receive a free download of the best radar app available for your smart phone.  That's a value of $10.

PLEASE, PLEASE follow the contest rules or I will have to disqualify your entry.


Once again, we will use "Price Is Right" rules.  You must be the closest without going over.

1.  Guess the combined snowfall for Little Rock, North Little Rock, Harrison, and Pine Bluff to the nearest tenth of an inch from December 16th, 2015 through March 15th, 2016.

For example if Little Rock received 5.1 inches, North Little Rock 7.3 inches, Harrison 13.5 inches, and Pine Bluff 1.9 inches, your guess would be 27.8 inches.  If you send a snowfall amount that goes to the hundredth of an inch, it will be disqualified.

2.  TIE BREAKER.  What will be the combined total low temperature for Little Rock and Harrison for the period December 16th, 2015 through March 15th, 2016.  For example, if Little Rock has a low of 30 degrees every night and Harrison has a low of 20 degrees every night, your answer would be 4550 degrees.  If you do not send in a tie breaker, you will be disqualified from the contest.

Ambient Weather WS-1001-WIFI OBSERVER Solar Powered Wireless WiFi Remote Monitoring Weather Station

Reagan Jones	29.1''	5210
Matt Savage	17.5	4875
Scott Cupp	12.4''	6165
Lydia Grier	47.4''	4633
Jesse Reynolds	41.6''	4432
Dustin Warner	23.9''	4389
Steve Higginbothom	32.3''	5850
Mark Bryant	33.3''	4848
Jayme Genz	35.2''	4732
West Higginbothom	31.5''	6006
Kipp Stiles	25.5''	5123
Liz Gephardt	36.2''	4451
Amy Braswell	39.5''	3612
Brian Dail	31.3''	5272
Aaron Missman	21.9''	5785
Ron Boling	14.0''	6967
Chad Gardner	17.3''	6350
George Eubanks	32.8''	5123
Zac Holthoff	41.3''	4667
Melanie Burris	22.2''	4010
Jamie Burris	19.2''	3620
Hunter Akins	21.5''	4732
Pattie Platt	32.8''	4250
Trent Gephardt	20.9''	5670
James Gammill	20.6''	5888
D Hyrum Vaughn	31.1''	4877
Terry McCormick	25.6''	4135
Madelaine Priest	17.7''	2978
Craig Robinson	48.2''	6886
Michael Ferry	32.5''	4750
Dale Cresswell	25.2''	5360
Joe Fowler	27.2''	6055
Michael Noble	42.0''	2700
Lanny Tanner	32.6''	5485
Stroberts	14.1''	5464
Travis Mays	27.3''	6433
Haley Chronister	21.8''	5456
Amy Wickliffe	25.4''	3848
Will Arnold	32.1''	5310
Hunter Mays	33.7''	3987
Ryan Chandler	26.7''	5580
Karrah Partin	21.2''	4140
Cassie Curtis	46.5''	4502
Reggie Ritter	26.8''	5398
Stephanie Perry	24.7''	4415
Jill Lorge	29.9''	3988
Kin Finne	16.8''	5694
Eric Lancaster	32.5''	5980
Brandy Flowers	31.8''	5624
Michael Teets	45.0''	4641
Kimberly Brown	31.8''	5231
Amanda Camp	37.8''	5208
Mary Webb	11.6''	5440
Garrett Fergusson	34.4''	9564
Bill Wirtz	38.6''	4999
Candice Nugent	19.4''	5026
Dewayne Standridge	18.4''	5951
Victor Persinger	25.1''	5000
Michael Stanley	19.6''	6121
Mark Cartwright	17.4''	5541
Anita Singleton	31.3''	4425
Rhonda	32.6''	4780
Ty Ledbetter	47.6''	4004
Becki Knight	25.3''	5190
Ryan Gorman	15.4''	4641
Tanner Wilson	18.9''	5614
Dale Miller	35.9''	5090
Laura Wilkie	28.9''	4625
Leslie Lloyd	28.9''	4280
Vince Holloway	12.7''	6456
Chris Poplin	22.0''	5600
Jordan Frizzell	23.7''	5670
Jim Moore	32.4''	5436
Clayton Saunders	16.7''	7200
Ashley Ross	13.1''	6100
Randy Tyner	17.6''	3653
Jrmartin	28.0''	5200
Matthew Parnell	17.3''	3523
Roadkingrod1	46.5''	4656
Jim Craig	20.1''	6390
Rachel Julian	33.3''	3000
Anthony Walker	17.4''	4870
Pryor Robertson	18.9''	6687
Chris Crank	15.9''	4978
Ian Ferrell	12.8''	8721
Justin Martin	16.3''	5430
Brian Smith	23.7''	6330
Kenneth Burleson	19.5''	5040
Vann Vaupel	21.4''	6221
Vickie Reeves	30.1''	3923
Marilyn Joyner	20.9''	7069
Amberly Chunn	24.1''	7830
Sharla Orren	44.8''	4268
William Holloway	31.2''	4324
Bob Harmon	16.8''	5789
Terry McKim	36.2''	5422
Frank Plummer	27.0''	5901
Damien Farris	13.6''	5220
Joshua Carroll	29.1''	4400
Jimmy Magee	30.3''	4368
Corey Ross	6.6''	3450
Jim Knox	22.5''	6370
Ben Rhoads	9.0''	5000
Alan Jones	7.2''	4499
Ward Smith	22.1''	5733
Jordan Ruple	28.9''	4860
Mitch Meredith	47.8''	4300
Laura Holland	23.3''	5000
Kolten Hight	28.7''	3780
LJ Anderson	6.8''	6543
Michael Noble	42.0''	5200
Austin Lovenstein	8.9''	7800
Kurt	24.7''	5134
Kelly Hobson	31.7''	5005
Phom Sisoukrath	32.7''	5825
LoriHarris	12.8''	5495
Stephen Harris	15.5''	5555
Benjamin Cowens	38.9''	6499
Joshua Zane Hannah	27.8''	49
Michael Bodiak	7.7''	5550
Aric Powers	31.7''	5580
Derri Ohm	18.4''	5661
Michelle Moore	14.3''	6754
Amanda Hillis	9.0''	7255
Ashlyn Ohm	8.9''	5700
Paul Wilkerson	18.3''	6552
Gbbowhunter	4.7''	6660
Brandon Ryan	16.5''	6000
Matthew Blair	7.3''	7216
Eric James	13.6''	4935
Beatrice Huey	23.5''	2350
Suzanne Homsley	34.4''	4590
Daniel Bishop	21.2''	5887
Jill Bounds	34.2''	4000
Tony Frisco	19.9''	6436
Jason Crow	18.2''	4900
Tommy Evans	16.4''	5320
Nicki Evans	27.3''	5127
John Dopieralla	24.1''	5600

Warmest Christmas Since....

Well, that depends on what model you look at. But first, I will post all the entries for the winter weather contest within the next few days.  Thanks for participating!

As you would expect, there are differences.   The GFS is coolest and the Euro is warmest  As a matter of fact, the Euro shows the warmest Christmas in Little Rock weather history with a high of 76.  The record high is 73 set in 1942.   I'M NOT FORECAST THAT AT THIS TIME.  The GFS has a high temperature of 57.  That's almost a 20 degree difference. If the GFS is correct, it's the warmest Christmas since 2011.  That's not crazy warm for sure!  As I usually say, the answer is somewhere in the middle.  I hope!  I sure don't want temperatures near 80.  Of course things may change and I'll keep you posted.

GFS forecast highs courtesy of weatherbell.com

The Euro courtesy of EuroWx.com.

Winter Weather Contest 2015-2016

http://www.tristatewhywait.com/

It's finally here!  The time has come to get your submissions in ASAP for winter weather contest.  This year, we are happy to have Tri-State Water Power and Air as our sponsor.

This year the grand prize is a professional home weather station from Ambient Weather.  The WS-1001 is solar powered and wireless with WiFi remote monitoring.  I have one of these at my house and I absolutely love it.  It automatically uploads all your data and stores it.  You can view the current conditions on your smart phone.  The prize is valued at almost $300.

Also, thanks to the great people at RadarScope. The winner will receive a free download of the best radar app available for your smart phone.  That's a value of $10.

PLEASE, PLEASE follow the contest rules or I will have to disqualify your entry.


Once again, we will use "Price Is Right" rules.  You must be the closest without going over.

1.  Guess the combined snowfall for Little Rock, North Little Rock, Harrison, and Pine Bluff to the nearest tenth of an inch from December 16th, 2015 through March 15th, 2016.

For example if Little Rock received 5.1 inches, North Little Rock 7.3 inches, Harrison 13.5 inches, and Pine Bluff 1.9 inches, your guess would be 27.8 inches.  If you send a snowfall amount that goes to the hundredth of an inch, it will be disqualified.

2.  TIE BREAKER.  What will be the combined total low temperature for Little Rock and Harrison for the period December 16th, 2015 through March 15th, 2016.  For example, if Little Rock has a low of 30 degrees every night and Harrison has a low of 20 degrees every night, your answer would be 4550 degrees.  If you do not send in a tie breaker, you will be disqualified from the contest.


ALL ENTRIES MUST BE SENT BY 9PM TUESDAY, DECEMBER 15TH.

PLEASE SEND ALL ENTRIES TO WEATHER@KATV.COM

GOOD LUCK!

Ambient Weather WS-1001-WIFI OBSERVER Solar Powered Wireless WiFi Remote Monitoring Weather Station

Twas The Night Before Christmas And All Through The House, The A/C Was Humming.

1:30PM Monday Update... I just reviewed all the long range data for Christmas week and my thoughts have not changed much at all.  However, I want to explain something very important here.  There appears to be a storm system next week and we'll have to deal with it.  These systems have been bringing rounds of heavy rain and that's my worry.  Anytime you have a storm system like this, you wonder about severe weather too.  Specifics this far out are useless as details will change.

Remember, having a storm system moving through means there's a battle in the atmosphere.   Depending on timing, you can get chilly temperatures for a day or two behind the system.  So while the week as a whole will average well above in terms of temperatures, it would not be out of the question to have a day or two of cold weather.  Could that be Christmas Eve or Christmas Day?  Again too early, but I'm looking everywhere for anything. LOL

__________________________________________________________________________

Ok, let's hope it doesn't get to that point.  We're talking about a forecast more than a week away, but we have a high degree of confidence temperatures will be well above average in the days leading up to Christmas this year.

While we will get a few days of typical December cold this week, we should go right back to the ridge over the central and eastern United States and a trough over the west.  Ski lovers out there are enjoying this for sure!

In the video I posted Sunday, I talked about the Arctic Oscillation (AO).  In its positive phase, it usually leads to above average temperatures and in its negative, below average temperatures.   The negative supports a suppressed jet stream allowing colder air to move into our region.  There are exceptions to this rule, but the AO is a great tool to use when forecasting 1-2 weeks out.  For example, at times last winter, the AO was strongly positive, but we kept getting pushes of cold air.  This had to do with a ridge building into Alaska dislodging the cold air and sending it south.  However, this does not appear to be the case next week.  

The one thing I have concern over is a storm system both of the main computer models are hinting at.  The Euro and the GFS both show concern around Christmas Eve and maybe Christmas Day for rain.   With mild air in place, you have to wonder about severe weather too.   I'M NOT SAYING THAT IS OUR FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  The only aspect to the forecast we're confident about are mild temperatures.  Specifics this far out are very tough to forecast.

Remember, we're also under the influence of an El Nino.  Let's go back to December 1982.  That was an El Nino winter and we had a swarm of tornadoes on Christmas Eve.   AGAIN, I'M NOT FORECASTING THAT AT THIS TIME, but it's always in the back of my mind.  No El Nino year is exactly alike!  That's another important thing to remember.

This is the 500 mb pattern from the European on December 23rd.  That big red blob over the desert southwest is a very strong storm system.  The trough is out west with the ridge central and east.  If this pulls out of that region, we could have some unsettled weather.

The GFS also shows the trough west and ridge east.... MILD

From Weatherbell.com. This is the AO from  December 5th through Christmas.  Look at the solid blue line.  That's the AO over the past couple of weeks in the positive and we have had mild weather.  Look at the dip below the "0" line this week.  That's the brief cold spell, then it shoots back into the positive.  As a matter of fact, it's almost off the charts positive.  Many times, when we see a rapid rise in the AO, it can lead to significant rain events and mild temperatures.

Also from WeatherBell.com.  These are surface temperature anomalies in degrees C for the period December 21 through the 26th.  It looks like Rudolph's Red Nose splattered all over the central and eastern U.S.  The cold air is bottled up with the trough over Alaska and the western United States while everyone east of the Rockies should be well above average.  

Winter Contest

http://www.tristatewhywait.com/

It's finally here!  The time has come to get your submissions in ASAP for winter weather contest.  This year, we are happy to have Tri-State Water Power and Air as our sponsor.

This year the grand prize is a professional home weather station from Ambient Weather.  The WS-1001 is solar powered and wireless with WiFi remote monitoring.  I have one of these at my house and I absolutely love it.  It automatically uploads all your data and stores it.  You can view the current conditions on your smart phone.  The prize is valued at almost $300.

Also, thanks to the great people at RadarScope. The winner will receive a free download of the best radar app available for your smart phone.  That's a value of $10.

PLEASE, PLEASE follow the contest rules or I will have to disqualify your entry.


Once again, we will use "Price Is Right" rules.  You must be the closest without going over.

1.  Guess the combined snowfall for Little Rock, North Little Rock, Harrison, and Pine Bluff to the nearest tenth of an inch from December 16th, 2015 through March 15th, 2016.

For example if Little Rock received 5.1 inches, North Little Rock 7.3 inches, Harrison 13.5 inches, and Pine Bluff 1.9 inches, your guess would be 27.8 inches.  If you send a snowfall amount that goes to the hundredth of an inch, it will be disqualified.

2.  TIE BREAKER.  What will be the combined total low temperature for Little Rock and Harrison for the period December 16th, 2015 through March 15th, 2016.  For example, if Little Rock has a low of 30 degrees every night and Harrison has a low of 20 degrees every night, your answer would be 4550 degrees.  If you do not send in a tie breaker, you will be disqualified from the contest.


ALL ENTRIES MUST BE SENT BY 9PM TUESDAY, DECEMBER 15TH.

PLEASE SEND ALL ENTRIES TO WEATHER@KATV.COM

GOOD LUCK!

Ambient Weather WS-1001-WIFI OBSERVER Solar Powered Wireless WiFi Remote Monitoring Weather Station

Reality Check PLUS A Look At Christmas Week

SCROLL DOWN FOR DETAILS ON HOW TO ENTER THE 2015-2016 WINTER WEATHER CONTEST.

Temperatures have been above the average daily high of 53 degrees for about 3 days now.  That's unheard of!  The air moving into the state will be a real reality check and a shock to the system since we're not used to it.  The air won't be bitter cold, but you'll need your coats for sure.

Also, this video goes over what may happen Christmas week.

DON'T FORGET ABOUT THE 2015-2016 WINTER WEATHER CONTEST.  SCROLL DOWN AND FOLLOW THE INSTRUCTIONS AND YOU CAN WIN A HOME WEATHER STATION.

Check out this video for more weather specifics.

Winter Weather Contest 2015-2016

http://www.tristatewhywait.com/

It's finally here!  The time has come to get your submissions in ASAP for winter weather contest.  This year, we are happy to have Tri-State Water Power and Air as our sponsor.

This year the grand prize is a professional home weather station from Ambient Weather.  The WS-1001 is solar powered and wireless with WiFi remote monitoring.  I have one of these at my house and I absolutely love it.  It automatically uploads all your data and stores it.  You can view the current conditions on your smart phone.  The prize is valued at almost $300.

Also, thanks to the great people at RadarScope. The winner will receive a free download of the best radar app available for your smart phone.  That's a value of $10.

PLEASE, PLEASE follow the contest rules or I will have to disqualify your entry.


Once again, we will use "Price Is Right" rules.  You must be the closest without going over.

1.  Guess the combined snowfall for Little Rock, North Little Rock, Harrison, and Pine Bluff to the nearest tenth of an inch from December 16th, 2015 through March 15th, 2016.

For example if Little Rock received 5.1 inches, North Little Rock 7.3 inches, Harrison 13.5 inches, and Pine Bluff 1.9 inches, your guess would be 27.8 inches.  If you send a snowfall amount that goes to the hundredth of an inch, it will be disqualified.

2.  TIE BREAKER.  What will be the combined total low temperature for Little Rock and Harrison for the period December 16th, 2015 through March 15th, 2016.  For example, if Little Rock has a low of 30 degrees every night and Harrison has a low of 20 degrees every night, your answer would be 4550 degrees.  If you do not send in a tie breaker, you will be disqualified from the contest.


ALL ENTRIES MUST BE SENT BY 9PM TUESDAY, DECEMBER 15TH.

PLEASE SEND ALL ENTRIES TO WEATHER@KATV.COM

GOOD LUCK!

Ambient Weather WS-1001-WIFI OBSERVER Solar Powered Wireless WiFi Remote Monitoring Weather Station

Bumpy Transition To Colder Air

Don't forget to get your entries in for the winter weather contest.  Read the post below for more information.  The grand prize is a professional home weather station.


When temperatures get into the 70s in December, look out!  We have a strong storm system coming through Saturday night into Sunday.  The Storm Prediction Center has outlined much of western Arkansas for a severe weather risk late Saturday. While I can't rule out some strong winds, I really don't think severe weather is the main threat at this time as instability levels will be quite low.  If that changes, I'll let you know.

The main threat, IMO, will be heavy rainfall.  Some locations may see 2-3 inches with isolated higher amounts.

There appears to be a more significant push of colder air by the middle of next week.  Moisture return looks minimal as the front moves through Wednesday.  I expect highs only in the 30s and 40s by the end of next week across the state.  What about moisture?  The GFS says "yes" and the Euro says "no".  In the long range, I would place bets on the Euro.

The GFS valid Friday the 18th at midnight.  This model develops a significant wave of low pressure along a stalled front along the Gulf coast.  With the freezing line over northern Arkansas, it develops snow across the northern portions of the state with a cold rain elsewhere.

The Euro shows the cold air in place, but the wave of low pressure is weaker and moves quickly to the east

THE BOTTOM LINE...  While the SPC has a slight risk for severe weather across western Arkansas late Saturday, I have doubts.  Instability is limited.  If this came in during the day, I would have more concern.  At this time, I'm not dismissing the severe chances completely, but I think heavy rainfall will be the main threat.  I expect flash flood watches to be issued as 2-3'' + of rain will be possible.

Both models agree a strong cold front will move through Wednesday and introduce the coldest air of the season so far.  Sorry winter weather lovers (I'm one of them), winter weather chances do not look great.  The GFS says "yes" and the Euro says "no."  If this changes, I'll let you know.

Winter Weather Contest 2015-2016

http://www.tristatewhywait.com/

It's finally here!  The time has come to get your submissions in ASAP for winter weather contest.  This year, we are happy to have Tri-State Water Power and Air as our sponsor.

This year the grand prize is a professional home weather station from Ambient Weather.  The WS-1001 is solar powered and wireless with WiFi remote monitoring.  I have one of these at my house and I absolutely love it.  It automatically uploads all your data and stores it.  You can view the current conditions on your smart phone.  The prize is valued at almost $300.

Also, thanks to the great people at RadarScope. The winner will receive a free download of the best radar app available for your smart phone.  That's a value of $10.

PLEASE, PLEASE follow the contest rules or I will have to disqualify your entry.


Once again, we will use "Price Is Right" rules.  You must be the closest without going over.

1.  Guess the combined snowfall for Little Rock, North Little Rock, Harrison, and Pine Bluff to the nearest tenth of an inch from December 16th, 2015 through March 15th, 2016.

For example if Little Rock received 5.1 inches, North Little Rock 7.3 inches, Harrison 13.5 inches, and Pine Bluff 1.9 inches, your guess would be 27.8 inches.  If you send a snowfall amount that goes to the hundredth of an inch, it will be disqualified.

2.  TIE BREAKER.  What will be the combined total low temperature for Little Rock and Harrison for the period December 16th, 2015 through March 15th, 2016.  For example, if Little Rock has a low of 30 degrees every night and Harrison has a low of 20 degrees every night, your answer would be 4550 degrees.  If you do not send in a tie breaker, you will be disqualified from the contest.


ALL ENTRIES MUST BE SENT BY 9PM TUESDAY, DECEMBER 15TH.

PLEASE SEND ALL ENTRIES TO WEATHER@KATV.COM

GOOD LUCK!

Ambient Weather WS-1001-WIFI OBSERVER Solar Powered Wireless WiFi Remote Monitoring Weather Station

Tornado Outbreak of December 2, 1982

KATV VIDEO ARCHIVE OF TORNADO DAMAGE AND FLOODING DECEMBER 2, 1982


 
It's hard to believe it has been 33 years since the outbreak of 16 tornadoes.  2 people died and 60 were injured during this 2 day outbreak.  I'm going to show my age here, but I was 8 years old and in the 3rd grade.  I barely remember this event.  I do remember having to take cover at school and hearing afterwards of a radio tower in the midtown area collapsing.  That's where my memory of this event stops.  

Here's some information I found about that F3 tornado which tore through Saline county and moved through the gut of the metro area. 

"At 2:55 PM, on December 2nd, a tornado touched down near Bryant, Arkansas, moved northeast through residential areas of western Little Rock to Crystal Hill, Arkansas.  Eight-six mobile homes were destroyed in Alexander.  One man was killed and 28 were injured.  Another man was killed when a piece of sheet metal crashed through the windshield of his parked car.  In western Little Rock, an additional 25 people were injured.  Also, over 100 homes were destroyed and about 750 buildings were damaged."

That month in 1982 was a December we DON'T want to remember.  It's also known for flooding those same two days across west central into north central Arkansas.  The entire business district in Clinton was flooded as more than 10 inches of rain fell.  

I also remember the big Christmas Eve tornado outbreak later that same month.  We were in the middle of church services and the sirens were going off.  More on that later this month.

1982 was a historic year weatherwise in Arkansas for flooding and tornadoes.  As a matter of fact, we ended up with 78 tornadoes that year which to this day is the 3rd most in state weather history.

Meteorologist John Robinson at the National Weather Service office in North Little Rock worked those outbreaks that December and he's still working there today.  I want to thank him for helping me find some of this information online a few years ago.

If you have any stories of this event, please share them in the comment section.

Below are various graphics I have found.

Here are all the tornado tracks I could find from the tornadohistoryproject.com  We had 6, F3 tornadoes in Arkansas in 1 day (December 2nd).  You can clearly see the one which went through the Bryant and Little Rock area.

Here's the exact path of the F3 tornado from Bryant through Little Rock into North Little Rock.  It looks like it went right over the junction of I-30 and I-430.  Someone may help my memory in the comment section, but was Parkview High School hit?  Anyway, it went through midtown and crossed the river near Burns Park and moved close to the North Little Rock airport.

Here's a little wider shot showing more F3's north of Little Rock up towards Faulkner county on December 2nd.

More tornadoes were spawned on December 3rd.  Look at the one just east of Camden.  That's an F3

Here's a close up of the F3 which barely missed Camden, but caused significant damage just east and northeast of town on December 3rd, 1982.

This map may be a little difficult to read, but the areas outlined in western and northern Arkansas shows where a lot of rain fell.  As a matter of fact, almost of foot fell in some locations.  Here's more information I found about the flooding that day... "Torrential rains totaling ten inches or more fell in west and north Arkansas during a relatively short period from the afternoon of Thursday, December 2 to Friday morning December 3, 1982 (Figure 1). Extensive flooding occurred in these regions , both flash floods and river flooding. Particularly astounding was the rise on the Buffalo River at St. Joe, Arkansas. This small undammed river in a National Wilderness Area rose from 6.4 feet the morning of December 2 to 53.7 feet at noon December 3, a nearly 50 foot rise in one day (2)! Clinton, Arkansas, the county seat of Van Buren County, was especially hard hit by flooding. The entire business district was under 8-10 feet of water by the morning of December 3. Six people drowned in flood waters in the state."

Here's the surface map on December 2nd.  Notice the front to the west.  It was very slow moving due to the slow nature of the upper level trough advancing out of the western United States.  A ridge of high pressure over the east halted forward progress causing the system to creep at a slow pace.  This contributed to the excessive, flooding rainfall.

Here's the upper level chart.  You can see the deep trough to our west and the very significant amplitude to the jet stream.  

AGAIN, PLEASE SHARE YOUR MEMORIES OF THIS HISTORICAL WEATHER EVENT IN THE COMMENT SECTION.  THANKS FOR READING

Record Rain

FOLLOW ON TWITTER

While a few showers will be possible Thanksgiving, especially over western Arkansas, the rain will become likely Friday and Saturday.  This may even extend into Sunday.

The Razorback game weather in Fayetteville will be brutal.  Temperatures falling through the 40s with heavy rainfall.  Remember, it could always be worse.  The Oklahoma State v. Oklahoma game in Stillwater Saturday evening will be even colder with rain possibly changing to ice.  That should be interesting to watch on Channel 7.

Remember I said to follow the Euro with temperatures Saturday.  I just looked at the newest run of the GFS  this morning and it's backing way off those 60s.  It may be close to 60 at midnight, but those readings will fall during the rest of the day.

Now onto the rainfall.  Little Rock has had 5.25'' so far this month and we could double that by early next week.  This could propel us into the top 10 wettest November's on record.

In west Little Rock, the monthly total so far is 7.61''.

Here are the top 10 wettest November's in Little Rock weather history.

1. 2011 - 14.57''
2. 1988 - 13.14''
3. 2000 - 10.99''
4. 1987 - 10.96''
5. 1889 - 10.20''
6. 1982 - 9.72''
7. 2004 - 9.66''
8. 1957 - 9.54''
9. 1977 - 9.34''
10. 1973 - 9.03''

I find it interesting that 5 of the top 10 wettest November's have all occurred since 1987.  This helps answer the question why November is our wettest month on average.  Those are 30 year averages which determine that and all those are years are included in that calculation.

Here are the model projections which should launch us into that record territory.

EURO 5 DAY RAINFALL 

GFS 5 DAY RAINFALL

Thanksgiving Weekend Forecasting Headache

I think it's a given we're going to have rain and plenty of it.  Once again flooding will be a concern.  I think Thanksgiving will be mostly dry with a few light showers mainly over western Arkansas.

The forecasting headaches begin Friday and really push into Saturday.  The GFS and Euro disagree on frontal placement and that plays a huge role in forecasting temperatures.  One GFS model run had the front through central Arkansas and temperatures only in the 40s Saturday and now the newest run has us in the 60s.  What about the Euro?  I go over all that in this very detailed video.

Thanksgiving Weather And Beyond

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Lots going on over the next week or two weather wise and that's very important considering we have the busiest travel day of the year coming up, Thanksgiving, shopping, and trying to get into the Christmas spirit!

As we first told you, a freeze is expected this weekend, but there could be even colder air down the road, plus another warm up.  It's all in this video

Also, I address the upcoming winter weather contest.

Storm Timing and Going Cold Turkey

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This blog is loaded with tons of information...

• SPECIFIC TIMING FOR RAIN AND STORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
• SPECIFIC THREATS 
• THANKSGIVING WEEK TEMPERATURES

Update... Super Soaker

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It's Monday night into Tuesday we're watching very carefully for the heavy rain threat.  Flash flood watches are already up as well.  There's also the risk for some severe weather and this video goes over everything you need to know.

Super Soaker!

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1:10PM Friday Update... I posted this on twitter this afternoon.

The question isn’t, “if it will rain?” , but “HOW MUCH?”  Euro a bit more realistic… hopefully 

Both the Euro and GFS show the rain, but differ greatly on how this plays out.  The GFS closes the low off west of the state and keeps it west of us for quite awhile and high rainfall amounts result.  The Euro is more progressive.  It brings rain, then shoots the low northeast.  The answer?  It's a wait and see thing.  The Euro has been known to handle these things better, but if the low does close off, typically they are slow moving.  I'm taking the middle of the road approach at this time.

Here's the Euro next Wednesday at 6AM at 500 mb (about 20K feet up) .  The low is opening up and shooting northwest.  It's located near the borders of Missouri, Iowa, and Illinois.

The GFS is vastly different at the same time and has the upper level low over western Kansas.   See that closed black circle near Goodland, KS?  It's well west of us with a strong fetch of moisture ahead of it and disturbances affecting the state.  Huge difference in placement of the storm system

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If you watched the video yesterday, I pointed out the differences between the GFS and the Euro.  The GFS closes the low off and keeps it west of the state while the Euro closes the low and moves it more rapidly to the east.  History tells us closed lows often do not move fast at all giving the GFS a bit more credibility.  Usually the answer is somewhere in the middle.

The end result is in rainfall amounts and timing differences at to when the system leaves.  If you believe the GFS, our rainfall amounts could be extreme.  The Euro is nothing to brush off though.  It shows heavy rain, but not nearly as much as the GFS.

The position and movement of the low is crucial.  The circulation around the low will entrain dry air from the southwest and shut down precip, but the question is where and when.  This entrainment of dry air is very typical in these systems and we refer to them as a "dry slot".  When that arrives and shuts down the rainfall is what needs to be answered.  That will be slower if you believe the GFS and faster if you believe the Euro.

This is the European rainfall amounts through Wednesday morning at 5AM.  Believe it or not, this is the lightest between the two main models.  It's very possible to have at least 3-4 inches of rainfall.

Since the GFS is slower, it makes sense rainfall amounts are heavier with 4-6 inches possible.  I think the answer is somewhere in the middle.  Nevertheless, significant rainfall is likely.

This is 500mb from the GFS valid late Wednesday.  You see that closed line over southeast CO?  That's the upper level low. The GFS is much slower compared to the Euro.  That's why rainfall amounts are heavier with this particular model.

Here's the Euro during that same time period.  HUGE DIFFERENCE!!!  The upper low is on the Missouri/Iowa border.  This model is more progressive with the storm.  While it brings rain, it's not as heavy as the GFS.  As I said, the answer is probably somewhere in the middle.

The Rain Faucet Stays On

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What drought?  Once you get into a wet weather pattern, you stay in it for awhile.  We have yet another storm system next week to watch.  Both of the main computer models I look at have a strong area of low pressure affecting the state, but both have differences as to exactly how this will play out and that's very typical when you're talking about a forecast several days in advance.  Bottom line, both show the threat for heavy rainfall next Tuesday.

This video goes over everything you need to know.