Severe Storm Specifics

10:15AM Update... Remember my thoughts about how morning clouds and rain will play a role in determining where the greatest severe weather threat will play out?  Most of the state is under thick cloud cover this morning, especially central and north.  While clouds exist across southern Arkansas, there has been little if any rainfall there and any breaks in the clouds will add to destabilization.  While I don't make the severe weather outlooks, I have a feeling the "enhanced" area will be trimmed back further to the south.  While the threat for severe weather continues for much of the state, at this time, I have a feeling most of it will be across far southern Arkansas into Louisiana and Texas.

10AM visible satellite imagery.   We are covered up in clouds and that helps keep things stable.

Noon simulated radar shows showers and storms over central and western Arkansas.  Some could be strong and maybe borderline severe with hail and wind the main threats.

2PM simulated radar shows storms across the south.  Some strong to severe.

4PM shows scattered to numerous showers and storms over the south.  Some strong and maybe severe.

8PM simulated radar indicates things are winding down across the south.
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In the video I produced last night (Sunday), I mentioned the chance morning rain/storms could help determine where the highest threat for severe weather may exist.  This video goes over the newest model data, specific threats, and timing as we expect another round of storms later today.

Remember, follow @KATVNews on twitter for instant watches and warnings.

Monday Severe Threat

It's very rare you can go 10 days deep into April without any severe weather, however, this will change Monday.  I fully expect severe thunderstorm watches and tornado watches to be issued.  This is an in-depth video and goes over:

• 2 rounds of storms
• specific timing
• specific threats

Severe Weather and Flooding

It's here!  The much talked about storm system will arrive today and it will not leave until Thursday PM.

This video goes over:

• SPECIFIC THREATS
• TIMING
• LOCATION OF THOSE THREATS
• HOW MUCH RAIN MAY FALL
• A SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THURSDAY

Wednesday Worries

Worries?   I guess I should become a writer for network news.  How many times have you heard national anchors say, "why you and your family should worry about________"?  It gets old doesn't it and now I use it.  HOWEVER, there's also a chance this severe threat will not be too great!

As with most storm systems, there are always questions that really can't be answered until we get within 12-24 hours of an event and sometimes not until just before storms begin to fire up.  We'll need to watch morning rain and storms.  This would act to limit daytime instability and lessen the severe weather threat.  With that said, if we break out into sunshine, then we all know that adds fuel to the fire and storms can get out of hand.

Beyond this severe weather threat, we'll have ANOTHER chance for a frost/freeze next weekend.  More on that later.

Most of the following maps are from Weatherbell.com

1PM cloud cover indicates there should be quite a bit Wednesday.  This COULD help to limit the instability.

Late Wednesday instability (CAPE) should be highest across western, southern, and portions of central Arkansas.  This is where the SPC has the risk for some severe weather.

1PM temperatures Wednesday.  Look at the pockets of cool over the north and northeast.  Again, that could help lessen the severe weather threat there, but look at the warming south and west early in the afternoon.

Lifted Index (LI) is another parameter we often look at for instability.  The more negative the number is, the more unstable the atmosphere.  The over night run of the GFS points towards eastern OK and southern Arkansas Wednesday afternoon.  Remember, we are 2 days away and much of this can still change.

Storms, Easter, and April Fools Chill

We have a lot to talk about over the next 2 weeks.   This video goes over everything in detail from A to Z.

• EXACT timing of storms tonight and specific threats
• Easter sunrise weather
• Possible late Easter rain and storms.  I am not ruling out some hail
• Early April chill
• Possible comparison to April 2007.... POSSIBLE 

Winter Contest Winner

Total snow for Little Rock, North Little Rock, Harrison, and Pine Bluff = 20.2''

Playing the "Price Is Right" rules.  The person closest without going over guesses 20.1''.  Congratulations to...

JIM CRAIG

It's Going To Get Rough Today

The much talked about (for well more than 1 week) "bowling ball low" will barrel through the state this afternoon and evening.  My thoughts have really not changed as to how this evolves.   As you always know, mother nature can throw curveballs and I'm always aware of that possibility.  Hail will be the big concern today, but there's also a threat for tornadoes.  I don't think it's a big threat, but it is there.  Also, it will NOT take severe winds to topple trees due to the very saturated ground.  I expect a few power outages.

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded much of the area from a "slight" to "enhanced" risk for severe weather.  What does that mean?

• SLIGHT- Scattered severe storms possible.  Short lived and/or not widespread isolated intense storms possible.  1-2 tornadoes possible along with some reports of damaging winds and hail 1-2'' in diameter.
• ENHANCED - Numerous severe storms possible.  More persistent and/or widespread, a few intense.  A few tornadoes possible with several wind damage reports.  Hail 1-2'' in diameter.

The following maps are an hour by hour look at simulated radar from the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh).  Again, this will not be perfect, but it does give a good general idea.

While there will be hail, not everyone will see severe hail.  HOWEVER, it would be appropriate to find some protection for your car or whatever can be damaged from large hail.  You should have plenty of advance warning by watching radar today.