Goodbye January Thaw and Let's Watch Mardi Gras

Interesting how that rhymes, huh?  Transitioning from the mild January thaw to colder air will be bumpy for some, but not everyone.   As a colder weather pattern develops, we need to watch for any moisture that can get involved and there's at least some potential down the road.  It's interesting to note Mardi Gras 2014 and 2015 both had snow falling or on the ground in Little Rock.  I'm not saying that's going to happen this year, but some of the data is having deja vu all over again.

This video goes over the following...

• Timing of the cold front Tuesday
• Where the worst of the storms will likely be located
• The severe threats
• Some of the data says winter weather may not be too far away

Arkansas is in Fatality Alley

With the threat for overnight severe weather next Monday evening into Tuesday morning, I thought it would be important to show you why we're always concerned with overnight storms.  How this next event unfolds is still not completely clear.  The fact that it's coming in at night may limit the overall potential.  If this system slows down and it comes in Tuesday PM, then the concern will be raised for more severe weather.

There are even signs a strong cold front will sink through Arkansas Monday and push the warm/moist air to the south.   That means we will need to watch how quickly the high levels of instability returns to the north.  Anyway, I'll post more about that later.  Please read the following.


Several years ago, meteorologist Ashley Walker worked on some important research.  He found out that portions of Arkansas are in what's called "Fatality Alley" meaning there are more deaths caused by tornadoes in sections of Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama than any other place in the country.

Research from Meteorologist Walker Ashley with Northern Illinois University

If the new statistics from the National Weather Service and research from Walker Ashley aren't a wake up call, I don't know what is?    Here are a few of reasons portions of the mid south are in "fatality alley"

• Mobile home density. The NIU meteorologist said 44 percent of all fatalities during tornadoes occur in mobile homes, compared to 25 percent in permanent houses. The southeast United States has the highest percentage of mobile-home stock compared with any other region east of the Continental Divide. “Mobile homes make up 30 to 40 percent of the housing stock in some counties in the deep South,” Ashley said. “By far, mobile homes are the most vulnerable structures in a tornadic situation.”
• Nighttime tornadoes. The southeast United States has a higher likelihood of killer nighttime tornadoes. Most states within this region have greater percentages of tornado fatalities occurring at night than other states.“I just completed another study that shows tornadoes from the midnight to sunrise period are 2.5 times as likely to kill as daytime events,” Ashley said. Further, nocturnal tornadoes are more difficult to spot, and people are more likely to be asleep when warnings are issued.
• Forested areas. Whereas regions within the Great Plains by definition are lacking in tree cover, the mid-South region is more forested, leading to reduced visibility both for the public and spotters.
• Early season storms. Storms that occur before the national peak in the severe storm season, which spans May and June, may catch people off guard during a tornado event.
• Complacency. In contrast to other parts of the country, the South lacks a focused “tornado season,” which can lead to complacency. “In the South, people think tornado alley is where you get tornadoes,” Ashley said. “That sort of perception also leads to complacency, which in turn leads to higher fatality rates.” He points out that Oklahoma is known worldwide for the frequency of its tornadoes. Yet the state has fewer fatalities than Arkansas, Alabama and Mississippi.

The media and the National Weather Service must intensify efforts to save lives.  I don't want to underestimate the current efforts because I know many work hard and long hours to communicate life saving information.  New ideas and initiatives must be explored to change this unfortunate fact of life in the mid south.

Major Storm System To Start February

For about a week now we have been talking about the beginning of February and the possible significant storm system.  We'll be on the warm side of this initially and that means we have the possibility for strong to severe thunderstorms.  Much colder air should follow as winter roars back.  At this time, I don't see any moisture involved with the cold air return, but February is usually our snowiest month.  For those asking if we'll see more snow this winter, I think the chance is good.  It's not a matter of if, but when in my opinion.  At this time, I don't see anything over the next 7 days though

This video goes over

• The possible near record breaking high temperatures this weekend
• How the next storm system will impact Arkansas
• The possibility for northwest Arkansas light snow
• New snowpack to the north may influence our return to cold weather
• The chance for cold weather to last for awhile.

Major Storm On The Horizon

We have an enormous storm system to deal with next week.  I think the impact from this storm will be much worse towards the north of Arkansas with blizzard conditions.  We will feel the effects in the form of rain and thunderstorms followed by a blast of cold air.

This video goes over...

• NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
• WHAT MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM STRONGLY REBOUNDING
• TRACK OF THE STORM
• THUNDERSTORM THREAT TIMING
• SNOW POTENTIAL IN ARKANSAS
• WHERE THE BIGGER SNOWFIELDS DEVELOP
• HOW THOSE SNOWFIELDS WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER

Spring vs Winter

8PM Tuesday Update... This may seem random, but a I want to share a story with you about a weathergeek I knew many years ago.  My first job out of college was at a TV station in Missoula, Montana. The people there thought it was funny how excited I got over snow.  Snow to them is like rain to us... not a big deal.

One day I received a call from a viewer in Hamilton, Montana which is located in the southern Bitterroot Valley.  He loved the snow just as much as I did, if not more.  He would frequently call in snow amounts and we would talk about the next big storm heading into Big Sky country.  On one occasion, I remember a narrow, heavy band of snow set up over his location and dumped 15 inches while just 5 miles down the road nothing fell.  It was something we often talked about in amazement, but to everyone else, it was just another cold winter day.

After moving to Chattanooga, TN for my next TV job, we lost touch.  A few months into the new job, I received a phone call from his wife.  My friend had died in a car accident caused by slick roads.  I guess it's just the winter season and hearing from everyone who loves the snow that always brings back Tony's memory this time of year.  I know he's up there rooting for more snow.

_________________________________________________________________________


A major seasonal clash is about to occur and the fight takes place directly over the central portion of the country.  It's that time of year when spring and winter  really fight it out and all of the guidance we use indicates a storm system will have a major impact starting next Monday into Tuesday.

At this time, it appears the storm will track north of the state putting Arkansas firmly in the warm sector and that means we must watch for possible strong to severe thunderstorms.  As is always the case, specifics this far out are impossible.  I expect a major snow storm with blizzard conditions further north from Colorado to Minnesota so airline travel will be affected.

When the cold air begins to get chased out by the warmer air off the Gulf and Pacific.  I would not be surprised to see widespread fog develop with the cold ground from recent snow.  This may keep temperatures from strongly rebounding.  However, I think there's still a good chance to get highs well into the 70s Sunday and Monday of next week and we could challenge record highs.

This is the transition from the January thaw to a colder weather pattern.  Once the low passes by, a return to winter temperatures will be likely, but at this time, I don't see much moisture.

The arctic oscillation index is a fantastic tool to forecast trends within 2 weeks.  Notice the negative AO earlier this month and that correlates to the below average temperatures.  Then the AO goes positive and that's the current milder pattern we're in right now.  During the first week of February, it's forecast to go towards neutral to slightly negative.  How long it stays there is a big question at this point.

A very mild "zonal" flow (west to east) will flood the country with Pacific air late this week into the weekend.  I think highs in the 70s will be possible. 

A strong storm system develops over the western United States.  This will bring rain and storms Monday into Tuesday followed by cold air again.

Winter Storm Update.

12:15PM Thursday Update....  Nothing much has changed at all.  I still think the worst of this will be over portions of central, eastern, and northeastern Arkansas.

I expect rain to change to sleet/freezing rain, then to snow.  The amount of sleet may cut into snow totals.  Regardless, travel will be messy.

Winds will also become very strong as this system wraps up tonight and that raises the concern for power outages.  The most likely area for this will be eastern Arkansas.

It's completely possible to have thundersleet and thundersnow.  Where convection and banding occurs, higher snow and sleet amounts will be likely.  It's extremely difficult to pinpoint where that will happen, but the most likely area will be eastern Arkansas.

I want to quote Meteorologist Ryan Vaughan at our sister station in Jonesboro.  This really sums up what we're dealing with.  NO snow/ice forecast will be perfect.

"This is like predicting what a bull will do when it comes into the arena. We know it is coming in... but what it does when it gets here is questionable! Giddy up!"

Below are maps from the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) off of WeatherBell.com.  This will not be perfect, but it goes over timing.

To summarize.

• The worst will move in tonight and early Friday morning
• Rain will change to sleet/freezing rain then to snow
• Highest amounts likely on the eastern side of the metro into eastern Arkansas
• Winds will be very strong and power outages will be possible, especially east
• Roads will become slick and hazardous
• Many schools will likely close Friday.

GREEN = RAIN

PURPLE = SLEET/FREEZING RAIN

BLUE = SNOW

6PM

7PM

8PM

9PM

10PM

11PM

Midnight

1AM

Oh Snow!

You know I always say things can always change and beginning last night, they really did!  The early Wednesday models converged on the idea eastern and southeastern Arkansas would get the highest snow amounts.  Last night, the NAM led the way with the change.  The upper low was more intense and a bit further to the northwest.  This shifts the axis of the heaviest snow westward.  The GFS followed, but the amounts were not as much, but still significant.  The Euro is showing a track a bit further to the south and east.  So once again, this is STILL a situation that can change.  With that said, it's looking favorable for significant snow for much of the Channel 7 viewing area.  I think 2-6'' will be very possible for much of central, northeast, and eastern Arkansas.  Higher amounts will be possible where banding and convection can enhance snow rates.  Yes, there might be thundersnow.

Here's one more concern I have.  The models have been nothing short of horrible with temperatures and that's always expected in arctic air situations.  How much above freezing, if any, do we get today?  There's a whole new round of moisture coming in during the day and there's the potential for some of this to be ice, especially across northern Arkansas.  I talked about this in a blog post a couple days ago.  I mentioned it would be possible for some locations to stay mostly with frozen precip.  Again, that most favored area is northern Arkansas, but the southern extent is in question.

Once the surface low passes and the upper level low comes into play, there will be a transition to all snow from west to east this evening.  Again, that snow may be heavy in some locations where the deformation zone sets up.  This is located north and west of the upper level low.  Exactly where this sets up is very difficult to predict, but it should be somewhere around central to eastern and northeastern Arkansas.


The following maps are the GFS from weatherbell.com

Green = rain
purple = freezing rain
peach = sleet
blue = snow

Red line is the 32 degree line
Blue line is the 35 degree line
Black solid lines are isobars (Lines of equal barometric pressure)

6AM to NOON Thursday

Noon To 6PM Thursday

6PM Thursday to midnight Friday morning

Midnight to 6AM Thursday

6AM to Noon Friday

Noon to 6PM Friday

The GFS run from last night

The overnight run of the NAM

The Channel 7 forecast as of this Thursday morning