5:50PM Saturday Update... We still have snow and sleet coming down in Harrison and we will not know who won until sometime Sunday. However, as of late Saturday afternoon, Harrison is now up to 8.5'' since December 1st. This means the 4 city total is now 24.5'', but will change. It's worth noting Erica Nazer did predict exactly 24.5''. We'll see what happens.
WINTER WEATHER CONTEST POST FROM SATURDAY MORNING. "It's going down to the wire this year. Who will win the Arkansas Weather Blog winter contest. The grand prize is a professional home weather station from Davis instruments. As of early Saturday morning, more snow has fallen at Harrison with a preliminary total of 22.5 inches. More possible through midnight so this can still change. As I write this at 8AM Saturday, Angel Holloway would win, BUT more snow possible." _____________________________________________________________
Saturday February 28th, 2015 afternoon blog post....
Next week could be one of those weeks we remember for a long, long time, IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT!
There are signs winter will give a punch right in the gut Wednesday after several hours of spring-like temperatures and thunderstorms Tuesday. It could be a wild ride to say the least.
This is Saturday and it's several days away so forecasting specifics would be useless. While the data agrees winter will return again with a punch, thing can always change (my usual disclaimer).
After a round of storms Tuesday, the arctic air comes roaring back with a strong wave of low pressure moving along the front as it is situated to the south. Where that storm tracks, the depth of the cold air, and the precip types all are yet to be determined. This video goes over the data and the possibilities. Remember, what I show you is not a forecast, just model data. Enjoy.
It's going down to the wire this year. Who will win the Arkansas Weather Blog winter contest. The grand prize is a professional home weather station from Davis instruments.
As of early Saturday morning, more snow has fallen at Harrison with a preliminary total of 22.5 inches. More possible through midnight so this can still change.
As I write this at 8AM Saturday, Angel Holloway would win, BUT more snow possible.
The disturbance coming through Texas and Oklahoma this afternoon gives me a great opportunity to explain radar, how it works, and why snow may not reach the surface for some (virga). Check out this video blog for an explanation.
8PM UPDATE... Two things have changed this evening. Thanks to the WeatherNinja for checking my numbers. I was off a little. Also, the NWS updated the snow total in Little Rock from .9 to 1.6'' today. This means the total is 21.7'' and Bob Harmon guessed 21.6''. He is the front runner now at this point. HOWEVER, that can still change. The NWS could update snow totals today OR we could have a little more snow between now and the end of the month. STAY TUNED, THIS IS GOING DOWN TO THE WIRE.
I don't think our snow forecast could have worked out any better. We knew there would be an incredibly sharp cut off to the snow somewhere around the metro. I got 1'' in west Little Rock, North Little Rock got a trace, and Conway 0. Meanwhile Benton received between 2-3 inches. The largest snowfall amounts I can find were in Rison, Fordyce, and Pine Bluff at 6''.
Just a few weeks ago, it looked like we might not have a winner this winter, but now we will. The preliminary total between Little Rock, North Little Rock, Pine Bluff, and Harrison is 19.7 inches.
Again, this is preliminary and can change. We can still get a little snow at Harrison through the 28th and that can change the whole contest!
As of the 25th, WE HAVE A TIE! Remember, we play using the "Price Is Right" rules. Whoever is closest without going over wins. Both Brandon Ryan and Chris Crank guessed 19.6''.
Now we go to the tie breaker... add up the low temperatures at LR and NLR combined December through February. If it comes down to that, Chris Crank wins. He guessed 5307 and Brandon Ryan guessed 7112. The actual through the 24th is 5618.
I'm going to have the "WeatherNinja" double check my numbers so once again, the numbers above are not official yet.
Little Rock 4.4'' North Little Rock 3.6'' Pine Bluff 6'' Harrison 5.7''
Yep, Pine Bluff has had more snow during meteorological winter than Harrison! Never say never to Arkansas weather.
5PM Tuesday Update... Quick post to tell you about how sharp the snowfall gradient will be and how difficult it will be determining where that gradient sets up. Snowfall amounts could vary greatly over a very short distance. It's hypothetical for Conway to get none, Little Rock to get and inch or two and Pine Bluff gets 6 inches or even more. I'm not saying that's going to happen specifically, but just to illustrate how hard it will be to know exactly where this gradient sets up until the system arrives. We're very confident southern Arkansas will get snow, but the northern extent is in question. IT ALL HAS TO DO WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
THE MIDDAY RUN OF THE NAM HAS AN INCREDIBLE DIFFERENCE IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT DISTANCE. IT HAS ALMOST NOTHING IN MAYFLOWER AND CONWAY WHILE IT BURIES JEFFERSON COUNTY WITH MORE THAN 6''. LOOK AT THAT GRADIENT OVER LITTLE ROCK! THIS IS JUST ONE MODEL. COULD IT BE RIGHT? SURE, BUT WHAT IF THE LOW TRACKS JUST 20-30 MILES NORTH? JUST A SMALL ADJUSTMENT MEANS A HUGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HAVE AND HAVE NOTS. ALSO, THE NAM HAS A TENDENCY TO OVER FORECAST AMOUNTS LATELY.
AND THE GFS HAS THAT GRADIENT JUST A TAD FURTHER NORTH. IT'S A HUGE DIFFERENCE WHICH AFFECTS A MAJOR POPULATED AREA... CENTRAL ARKANSAS. STAY TUNED.
2PM Tuesday Update... The morning models continue a little northward trend with the NAM still the most aggressive and furthest north. I still think areas along and south of I-40 have the best chance for accumulating snowfall Wednesday. What about areas north of I-40? You still have a chance due to the uncertainty with the track of the low. There should be a heavy snow band and exactly where that sets up is also uncertain. For more information, read the post below. Here's the SCHOOL:CON index made early Tuesday afternoon.
This is going to be a very tricky forecast for Wednesday. The system coming through is more of a classic snow for Arkansas and the track of this area of low pressure is extremely critical. I can't stress that enough. This is a case where just a few miles can mean the difference between very little snow and several inches. It's a very difficult forecast at this point.
Let's rewind to last week for a moment. The models had this hitting Arkansas with a big snow. Then it took the system much further to the south. Starting with yesterday's data, its trending back to the north and is now bringing snow back to the state. What I just described has been the case for the past couple weeks. The storm is there in the long range, it trends south, then comes back north once within 48 hours. The NAM (North American Model) is leading the pack with this trend and the morning run of the GFS is catching up to it now. I expect the Euro to do the same.
The snow Monday was forecast by the NAM to be around 5'' for the metro and I'm glad I didn't go with that scenario, however, the NAM did a great job showing the system and its placement. So while I like the NAM, the amounts could be overdone a little.
As I alluded to above, the Wednesday storm system is much different than the Monday disturbance. This is a much stronger area of low pressure aloft. This large pocket of cold air in the upper levels will wipe out any mid level warming and that simply means most of the precipitation will fall in the form of snow. However, there could be a little sleet during the onset. Strong upward motion will cool the atmosphere and keep temperatures around freezing while it's snowing Wednesday.
The National Weather Service has a winter storm watch for the southern half of the state from Little Rock south. I completely agree with that and think many counties will turn into a warning. I also expect more counties to be added further north. At this time, I think everyone south of a Waldron to Greenbrier to West Memphis line will be favored for snow.
Timing? I think this starts early in the day for south Arkansas and mid morning for central Arkansas. I have more on the timing below.
The following maps are from WeatherBell Analytics. I'm mostly using the NAM. Remember, this will NOT be perfect. It's not a forecast. I'm just showing you model information below.
SIMULATED RADAR AT 9AM WEDNESDAY
NOON WEDNESDAY
3PM WEDNESDAY
6PM WEDNESDAY
PLEASE DO NOT TAKE THIS LITERALLY. IT'S ONLY A MODEL. THE NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS WITH AMOUNTS. IT WAS WRONG ON AMOUNTS ON MONDAY TOO AND THEY WERE FAR LESS THAN IT FORECAST. I THINK THIS MODEL HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH PLACEMENT OF SNOW HOWEVER
This is the Tuesday morning run of the GFS. Now you see the forecasting problems with the track of the low. The GFS is much further south, BUT has trended north.
Just like yesterday (Sunday), this will be a quick round of moisture. However, there is a major difference compared to yesterday's system. You may remember I was concerned with surface temperatures yesterday staying above freezing for central and south Arkansas. Today, most of the area will stay below 32 and most of this should be snow with the exception of far southern Arkansas where a mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow will be likely.
Also, this is NOT a major storm, but enough to cause even more travel issues. This video goes into the exact details with timing and amounts
10PM Sunday Update... I just read my 2:30PM update from earlier today and the forecast seems to have worked out quite well with the exception for areas south of the metro. There will still probably be some sleet mixed in as it ends tonight.
School administrators who still have classes scheduled Monday have a tough call to make Monday morning. There's another wave of moisture which will move across the state late in the morning into the afternoon. Once again, just like this last system, it will be a quick mover. The models, even at this stage of the game, differ on details. The NAM is very enthusiastic with snow while the GFS is ho-hum about it. The middle of the road approach might be best. The National Weather Service has gone ahead and continued the winter weather advisory into late Monday to account for this system
As I write this just before 10PM Sunday, the HRRR (which did a fantastic job with today's system) shows the moisture moving into the state late in the morning with the freezing line well south. This model only goes out 15 hours so we can't see the whole event just yet. At this time, I think the primary impact will be over western and southwestern Arkansas with decreasing amounts moving to the east. Once again, this is NOT a major storm. This is what I call a "low confidence" forecast since there are differences in the models. Here they are from weatherbell.com
Remember, this is a computer model and not a forecast. The GFS shows light accumulations between 6AM and noon Monday across south and southwest Arkansas.
Between noon and 6PM, the system decreases with only light amounts.
The NAM shows a good area of snow and much heavier than the GFS across western and central AR with freezing rain and sleet south. I have a hard time believing this will verify, but we'll watch it.
Here's my preliminary forecast for Monday. Please remember, this is low confidence since we do have model disagreement. With that said, I do believe this system will be a fast mover which would tend to limit amounts. _____________________________________________________________________________
2:30 PM Sunday Update....Most of the forecast is on track, but I have a few changes. I made a point to say this would quickly move through the state and it's going to end up being faster than I thought. I think most of the precipitation will be gone by midnight to 1AM Monday morning. This may make it easier for school administrators to make a call. Next concern are temperatures. Hi res models keep the 32 degree line north of the metro for quite awhile which may help limit amounts. We should start as plain rain, go to sleet, then eventually to snow before it ends. Again, this is NOT a major storm, but one which can cause slick roads. At this time, I think the highest amounts will be western Arkansas, especially the higher elevations. Amounts could reach 1-3'' with isolated amounts to 4''. Across much of the metro, I think we'll have rain to sleet then changing to snow. Total snow and sleet accumulations will be a dusting to 1''. I can not rule out isolated higher amounts around and just north and west of the immediate Little Rock area. South Arkansas will stay rain for awhile, but change to sleet and freezing rain. Amounts will not be heavy, but could cause slick spots. Northern Arkansas, you will see very little if anything. Maybe only a dusting in spots.
Winter wins the Oscar for biggest comeback in a single season. Ok, joking aside, another round of wintry weather is on the way. This will last for only a few hours this evening into early Monday morning and we are not talking about huge amounts. This is advisory criteria which means most amounts will be 3 inches or less. This video explains how much at your location.
There's still quite a bit of uncertainty as to the precip. type. I think for much of the metro, we'll have rain, then sleet, then at some point snow. Western Arkansas should have some sleet, then snow. Southern Arkansas will have rain changing to freezing rain and sleet. The snow chances there are not all that great, but there could be a little Monday. For a change, northern Arkansas will see little if any.
Once again, this video goes into great detail with an explanation of everything. Hope you enjoy
