Snow Pep Talk

I think all snow lovers out there need a little pep talk and that includes me too.  Yes, we're very disappointed about the lack of snow.  Twitter and Facebook comments are even going so far as to say "WINTER IS OVER"!  I can't disagree more with that.  IT'S ONLY MID JANUARY!!!!

By now many of you know how much admire the long range forecasting work of WeatherBell meteorologist Joe Bastardi.  He predicted a mild December a long time ago and said January through March would be prime months.  Even he will admit the warmth was overwhelmingly more than he thought in December.  I haven't looked at other cities around the country, but Little Rock's average temperature was 9 degrees ABOVE average.  That's a lot to overcome in January and February and I have big doubts he will hit his forecast for below average temperatures around -3 to -4.  One thing we can all agree about is the fact we have had a pattern change and we are getting cold air intrusions in January.  One arrives this weekend.

Joe's forecast and the forecast I showed here on the blog and on the air LAST SUMMER, called for snowfall to be 150 to 200% of average.  Our average snow in Little Rock is only a bit more than 3 inches.  So that's 5-6''.  As I have said here and on TV, we can get that in one night while you're asleep.  The bottom line, winter isn't over in my opinion and I'll show you why historically in a bit.

Let's also look at perception.  There were several bogus forecasts shared all over Facebook months ago calling for a horrible winter. While winter can still get brutal, I think we all know those forecasts are not from reliable sources.  Add to that maps all over social media showing snow chances from the Rockies to east coast for a period within 2 weeks is not a forecast and does not originate from reliable sources.  There's nothing anyone can do about it and there's nothing anyone should do about it.  It's their freedom to do that, but I urge you to be cautious with those forecasts.

My intention is not to degrade anybody for trying to make a forecast, but just to give you some information and my thoughts.

I encourage you to read this article written by Meteorologist James Spann from our sister station in Birmingham, AL.

http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=98058

Let's go back to December 2014 and January 2015.  I remember the chorus of social media voices asking me when winter was going to arrive and many gave up hope.  Then February hit and we all know what happened and how long kids had to stay in school to make up those days.

JANUARY 2015

FEBRUARY 2015

You can see the big difference between the two months with just a trace in January and then 5.3'' in February which is 150-200% of average.

I'm not saying to expect a snowy February, even though I think we'll get some.  I want all of those who are losing hope to realize there's plenty of time.   Also, in Arkansas, be careful with what you ask for.  Last August and September we were in a drought.  Are we in one now?  Have you seen those rivers and streams?   Things can change quickly around here.

Over the past 15 years, it's interesting to note January is the least snowiest month of winter.  Even though March is not in meteorological winter, I wanted to include it since we have had big snows in March.  I remember back-to-back big snows in March 2008 and even last year (2015). 

Just for fun, we'll eliminate the big Christmas snow of 2012.  January is still close to December as the least snowiest month.  Look at February!!!

My data above only takes into account the past 15 years, but this graphic takes into account the average snowfall each month over the past 30 years.

Weather Roller Coaster

We have a lot to talk about over the next 7-10 days and this blog video goes over all of that for you.

• Another batch of very cold arctic air
• a couple SMALL chances for LIGHT snow
• Another quick warm up
• More cold air later next week and storm system to watch

We're Not In December Anymore

Like Dorothy was not in Kansas anymore, I think we can safely say the warm weather in December is nothing but a distant memory.

An area of low pressure aloft is moving through the area with rainfall.  The air above us is super cold so it's snowing just off the surface.  If temperatures were a bit colder here, we would have snow.  As it is now, some snow is mixing in with the rain as far south as central Arkansas.  Later this afternoon and early evening, the rain could change to some wet snowflakes before ending according to new hi resolution model data.  Temperatures in the metro should stay above freezing until early Sunday morning.  At that time the moisture will be gone.  At this time, we're expecting little if any accumulation due to the warmer surface temperatures IF it does turn to a little snow.

MUCH colder and drier air will work into the state tonight with strong winds.  This will clear skies out and take wind chill values down into the single digits and teens.

The following maps of the HRRR is from weatherbell.com

Valid at 6PM, the rain could be changing to snow on the north side of the metro over to north central AR, HOWEVER, look at the purple line.  That's the 32 degree line.  Everthing along and north of it is at or below freezing.  We're above in central and NE Arkansas.

By 8PM, the area where snow is possible is along the 67/167 corridor.  Once again, it's ABOVE 32 degrees.

At 10PM, the precip. is exiting the state and the 32 degree line is STILL north of the metro.

Bitterly cold wind chills when you wake up Sunday morning.

Saturday Snow

This is going to be an interesting storm system to follow over the next 2 days.  While most of today (Friday) should be uneventful, rain and storms will move in tonight.  There may be enough instability for a few strong storms tonight and there could be some small hail.

Then I think much of southern and maybe central Arkansas will get "dry slotted" for awhile as the surface low strengthens.  Cold air will wrap around the low and temperatures will fall once that low passes by your location.  The moisture in the cold air just north and west of the track will change to snow and that favored area is northwest and north central Arkansas.  Is it possible to have flakes fly as far south as central Arkansas? Yes, BUT the chance is not all that great and there should be NO accumulation.  Flurries at best.  

I can't stress this enough.. this is NOT a major storm and its main impacts will be across north central and northwest Arkansas.

MUCH colder air will be felt with strong winds Sunday bringing down wind chill values.  I really thing the models may be a touch too warm next week, but that's another post for another day.  I have a ton of maps detailing EVERYTHING including threats, timing, and accumulation.  Snow lovers, this is just the start of a fun January and February!!!!  Let's sit back and enjoy!  For all of you who do not like winter, you get the other 10 months of the year. LOL

Many of these maps are courtesy of weatherbell.com 

Rain and storms will move across the state Friday night into Saturday morning.  The severe threat is quite low, but some small hail will be possible along with lightning and thunder.  This simulated radar is valid at 6AM Saturday.

By noon Saturday, the low is pulling into NE Arkansas and cold air and moisture is wrapping around the west side of it.  Notice the rain over the north and portions of central Arkansas.  Rain has changed to snow over northwest Arkansas.

By 3PM, temperatures continue to fall and it's cold enough for snow across north central Arkansas.  Cold rain showers further south.

I just wanted to show you simulated satellite to illustrate the dry slot.  This is at midnight early Saturday morning.  There's extensive cloud cover across the state.  The blues indicate the higher cloud tops and possible thunderstorms.

As the system wraps up and intensifies, by 9AM Saturday, it's pulling dry air into southern Arkansas.  the moisture over western and Arkansas and eastern OK is wrapping around the low counterclockwise.

The European model shows the possible accumulations over the north and it's all less than an inch, but the higher elevations could see more.  Remember, these are only models and this is NOT a big snow maker.

The GFS shows something similar.  While it's different in amounts, there is agreement where the best chance for snow will be located.

Then there's the NAM.  I think it's overdone. 4-5 inches?  While I can't discount it completely, this model is an outlier. 

The RPM, which is a model I really do not like.  It's run a dozen times a day.  It gets one out of 12 runs right and people jump up and down claiming it nailed it.  

Here's my preliminary forecast and the best course of action at this time.

BOTTOM LINE... this is NOT a big storm with its main impacts across northwest Arkansas.  No need to run out and buy milk and bread.  If anything changes, I'll let you know.

Snow-Way?!

More than a week ago, I told Chris Kane and all our Daybreak viewers to watch the weekend of January 9th and 10th for snow chances.   Chris and I defined "significant" snow as 1'' or more.  The models were all hitting on it, but then early this week started to back-off.

Now they are starting to trend back in the other direction.  Read my previous blog post and I talked about that possibility as well.

I can't say this enough, the area most favored for any wintry weather will be northern Arkansas.  The GFS gives mostly less than an inch to the far northern portions of the state, but the Euro shows it could be a bit more.  While I'm NOT spiking the football, Chris Kane, I have renewed hope my idea was right.  Nothing in weather is guaranteed until AFTER it happens.  That's rule #1 in meteorology.

This area of low pressure will move across the state Friday night into Saturday morning with a round of showers and storms.  Cold air will move back into the state Saturday and enough moisture could hang around up north for a transition to some wintry weather. 

This video goes over it all!

So You're Saying There's A Chance?

via GIPHY

Both of the main long range computer models have basically eliminated the chance for any snow this weekend.  BUT, they continue to hammer away at the cold air and it IS coming south.

With the GFS and the Euro abandoning the chance for snow, I WILL URGE CAUTION!  There have been times in the past when the data shows a system producing precipitation, takes it away, and then it shows back up on the data.

One more interesting thing to note, the CMC (Canadian) model has NOT jumped ship on the snow idea.  So, I'm telling you, there's still a chance.  But it's not a good one so DON'T get your hopes up!!!!

Here's the Canadian indicating some light snow still possible over northern Arkansas.  Please remember, my ideas never had snow coming into central and southern Arkansas.  It has always been northern and western Arkansas with the chance.  It's only Tuesday so we'll see and I'll keep you updated!  Image is courtesy of weatherbell.com 

You Want Winter? Here We Go!

Back in September and October, we went into a short term drought and everyone wanted rainfall.  I remember what I said then and I'll say it again now, be careful with what you ask for!  Yes, we needed the rain, but I think we got wayyyyy more than what we wanted.

Fast forward to December.  I was in complete shock getting phone calls, emails, tweets, and facebook comments saying winter was a dud and we wouldn't get any snow.  IT WAS ONLY DECEMBER!!!!!!!!!!  Again, be careful with what you ask for.

I love snow and cold weather as much as anyone else here and we all need to remember, the best of winter usually waits until January into the first of March.  Anything else is gravy as far as I'm concerned.

All the indications are there now for a very cold pattern to emerge starting next weekend into the following week and possibly beyond.  An enormous ridge will poke up into Alaska.  Whenever we see that, look out!  With the arctic oscillation (AO) going well negative, everything is lining up for a very cold period.  As I said on twitter, starting next weekend, January may be every bit as cold as December was mild.  

Now, what about snow or ice chances?  This Wednesday into Thursday, a weak system will bring a good chance for rain.  It COULD briefly start as a little light sleet over far western and northern Arkansas, but this will be no big deal.  99.9999999999999999% of this will be rain.  I really don't think amounts will be that heavy so the river situation should not be affected.

Fast forward to Saturday night and Sunday morning.  With arctic air oozing in, the GFS and the Euro both indicate a wave of moisture as low pressure develops along the boundary.  There may be enough cold air in place for light snow over western and northern Arkansas.  Again, at this time, the key word is "LIGHT".  I don't expect any big amounts, but it will be winter's way of saying, "hey, I'm back!"

More cold air will move into Arkansas next week and I would not be surprised to have highs in the 20s and 30s with single digit lows for some locations.

As Meteorologist Barry Brandt always says, "with arctic air in place, anything can happen."  Just the smallest disturbance can spark off precipitation.  So the fun and games for winter weather lovers are about to kick off!  I hope you make the Arkansas Weather Blog the place to go for your info.

The Euro valid the 10th at midnight (Sunday morning) indicates a wave of low pressure southeast of the state.  That's the black circle you see.  In the cold air behind it, you see I have outlined an area where light snow COULD fall... COULD.

The GFS is sort of similar with some moisture in the cold air, but it places the surface low in the Gulf of Mexico.  IMO, that's too far south and is a model error.  We'll see.