A Political Storm

I don't think this is going to be a big event, but there will be the potential for a few strong and maybe severe thunderstorms.  The main threats will be wind, then hail.  You can never rule out a tornado, but that threat is very much on the low side.  This video goes over specific timing and threats.

Rain, Wind, Snow, Lions, Tigers, and Bears

Ok, maybe not the last three in that title, but this is going to be one heck of a storm system and it will begin this afternoon with rain and lots of wind.  This video gives specifics on the following...

• Heavy rainfall likely
• Thunderstorms possible
• High winds and power outages likely
• Rain changing to snow for some

One Heck Of A Storm System

With a storm like this, it can throw curve balls (and snowballs).  While I still think the majority of the precipitation will fall in the form of rain, snow will be possible across the HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS.  Conditions aloft will be ideal for snow production, but surface temperatures should be above freezing.  What could go wrong with this forecast?   I always ask that when something like this comes along.  With a powerful area of low pressure like this, it can create enough lift and enough dynamics get involved to cool the atmosphere for big, wet snowflakes to reach the ground.  The most likely area for this to occur will be those higher elevations for western and northern Arkansas, but I'm watching elsewhere.  Otherwise, rain and wind will be the biggest issue for the majority of the state.  This is one heck of a storm system and there's a small chance for a strong to severe thunderstorm across southeastern Arkansas.  Late Tuesday into early Wednesday, winds may gust from 40-50 mph across the eastern half of the state and I expect wind advisories to be issued.  You might want to tie down the patio furniture!

You must keep this in mind, any snow that does accumulate north and west should QUICKLY melt due to the warm ground and a quick rebound in temperatures as soon as the precipitation exits Wednesday afternoon.

As of Monday morning, the blue areas have the best chances for snowfall.  The white areas may see a mix of rain and snow as soon as the upper dynamics swing into the area. 

Estimated wind gusts Tuesday night into Wednesday evening could be very strong

Again, most of us will see only rainfall with widespread 2-3'' possible.  Do not take each amount literally, but it's safe to say the recent dry conditions will be a thing of the past.

With a big storm system like this, a severe weather outbreak will be very possible southeast of Arkansas, but there's a small chance for a strong/severe storm over southeast Arkansas

The following maps are the GFS from Weatherbell.com.  This is late Tuesday afternoon with widespread rain across much of the state.  Winds are strong and out of the northeast.  Most of the temperatures should be above freezing by 6PM Tuesday, but should begin to fall over northwest AR around this time.

Between 6PM Tuesday and midnight Wednesday, the low pulls into Mississippi.  The counterclockwise flow around it into the low will create high winds out of the north and northwest.  The black lines are isobars.  They are tightly packed together indicating a strong pressure gradient.  High winds will be the result.  Notice the blue area showing up over the Ozarks.  That's the snow we're expecting up there.  I think this model could be under doing that area a bit.

Between midnight Wednesday and 6AM Wednesday, notice the area of snow (blue) over northern Arkansas with rain elsewhere.  I agree with this. However, what could go wrong with the forecast at this time?  Snow could be a bit more expansive than what the model is indicating, but right now, I agree with this scenario above.

Between 6AM Wednesday and noon, everything is moving way and if there is snow, it's already quickly melting.

Winter Is Over.... NOT!

While many areas will see mostly rain, some portions of Arkansas will have a good chance for some snow late Tuesday into early Wednesday.  As you would expect, the models are ALL OVER THE PLACE in terms of amounts, but they all show snow for northwest and north central Arkansas.  Of course, the higher elevations would be favored.  I also think the higher elevations of western Arkansas will have a chance too.

This video goes over everything you want to know and it's loaded with specifics.

Maps courtesy of EuroWx.com
and courtesy of Weatherbell.com 

Winter ROARS Back Next Week and I'm not "LION".

The chorus on social media singing "winter is over" will take a break next week for some of you!  A vigorous storm system will plow through the region bringing MUCH needed rainfall.  This is a set-up which really needs watching as the upper level low passes by Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.  For snow lovers, surface temperatures are going to be the big problem.  All of the models indicate they will be well above freezing, HOWEVER, there's some hope.

Strong lift along and northwest of the track of the low will be favorable for snow production aloft.  While surface temperatures will be in the mid 30s in northern Arkansas, snowflakes may still be able to reach the ground.  This can cool the area from the surface upward enough to get big wet snowflakes and it can accumulate for awhile.  Again, the favored area for this to happen is northern Arkansas across the higher elevations.  Shocker huh?  Can this change?  Absolutely!  This is Saturday and this is coming across Tuesday into Wednesday.

This video goes over the way things stand now with the data.  We're looking at a good chance for much needed rain, but maybe some snow to satisfy a few snow lovers.  Watch and I explain it all for you!

Maps courtesy of EuroWx.com

Social Media Storm

When I started in this business in 1997, television was a one way street.  We talked, you listened.  Social media changed all that several years ago and we can argue for better or worse.  I believe with any new technology, it has pros and cons, but the pros far outweigh anything bad.  I embraced social media with opened arms and I'm glad I did in light of how everything is evolving.  Gone are the days TV stations need a stick on top of a mountain to communicate.  It can all be done personally with a smart phone anywhere and anytime.

There's a real debate going on in the broadcast meteorology community surrounding how information is disseminated. I'll admit, I have been completely blind over the past few months or years about how many in our profession utilize automated scheduled tweeting.  I have always been under the impression media is a one way street, but social media makes it two ways.  In my opinion, once you take the interactivity out, you have removed the social from social media.  Some in my business refer to it as "antisocial media".

We now have the ability to communicate at anytime of day answering questions, giving opinions, talking about upcoming weather, etc.  One North Carolina TV meteorologist said something that has really stuck with me, "If you're doing TV weather on social media, you're doing it wrong."  That's one of the many reasons you will rarely ever see me put out my daily or 7 day forecast on Twitter or Facebook.  I try to give you more, but keep you coming to the TV when the news is on.  Meteorologists now hold the title of promotion producers as well trying to draw as large of an audience as possible for our stations newscasts.

While we're competitors in Little Rock, what you see on Twitter is the real deal.  No one in this market, Jonesboro, or Fayetteville is sending out automated tweets.  There's a real person behind each one.  I'm proud to be a part of the lively hashtag #ARWX.  Many meteorologists at all stations put countless hours into it on the clock and even at home on their off hours.

Why am I bringing this up?  Be careful with what you see on the #ARWX Twitter hashtag.  My hope is it continues to be a two way street, but others have differing ideas.  I have kindly asked for a few meteorologists in Missouri to drop the #ARWX from their automated tweeting.  By all means, I want them included since there are several counties in northern Arkansas in their viewing area.  My request has apparently been denied and that's just the way it goes. All I can do is continue on with my philosophy towards social media and once again, I'm proud our TV market and all 4 stations haven't turned to this automated scheduled tweeting.

How will you know what's automated and what's authentic?  You will notice tweets coming from the same people saying the same thing at the same time each day.  Mute it or unfollow it, it's your choice.  They can do this using a program and I'll illustrate that below.  Also below are the results from a Twitter poll I started yesterday.  With more than 600 votes, it's overwhelming what you want.

Thanks for reading

IFTTT is the program used for automation.  When you see this, you now know.

Todd, Is It Going To Snow Again?

If I had a nickel for each time I was asked that, I would be funding my own presidential campaign. LOL.

On Tuesday night, the local chapter of the National Weather Association/American Meteorological Society gathered for a meeting.  NWS Meteorologist John Lewis gave a fantastic presentation about the current El Nino and how it has influenced our weather. We are expecting a transition into a La Nina as we go further into this spring and summer and that will of course have impacts on our weather that will be discussed later.  He brought up a very interesting point, we have only had 29 nights at or below 32 degrees in Little Rock so far this meteorological winter (December 1 through February 17th).  That's tied with 2011-2012 for the fewest since 2000.   So where do we go from here?

I really like to look at the Arctic Oscillation Index (AO).  It's usually a great tool to see coming cold within the next 2 weeks.  It's not a long term tool like El Nino and La Nina outlooks.  There has been a near perfect correlation this winter between the positive phase bringing mild temperatures and the negative phase bringing colder temperatures.  The positive AO simply tells us the jet has retreated to the north not allowing the cold air to dive south, but the negative phase results in the transport of colder air to the south as blocking occurs and a more amplified pattern results.   As you would expect, we're in that positive phase now.  We were in most of December, then we went negative in January.  It's during the negative phase that we must watch for moisture as arctic air gets introduced into our region of the country.  Forecasting the moisture aspect is much more difficult until we can get within just a few short days of any event, but it's safe to say we need that AO in the negative for snow.  HOWEVER, I do remember a very positive AO in the past and snow around here.  It happened one December a few years ago with a cut-off low bringing light snow amounts of 1-2''.  Also, if my memory is correct, we had a positive AO many times last winter 2014-2015, but several rounds of arctic air.  That may have been due to another index known as the EPO (Eastern Pacific Oscillation).  Using the AO this winter has proven to be a great tool.  So what about the remainder portion of this month into March?  Check out the maps and charts below.

One more important note I'm now calling the "John Lewis rule" since he told me this several years ago and it makes perfect sense.  Watch when the AO makes a steep rise from negative to positive.  That's when we are more likely to see heavy rain/severe weather events in the winter and spring.

Here's the AO from the Operational GFS off of weatherbell.com since the beginning of the month.  The blue line is the actual AO verification.  Notice it's going above the 0 line now into the positive and that correlates with the mild air coming.  Now look down the road at the latest model run with the bigger circles.  It's forecast to dip to neutral then negative by the last week of this month.  All the smaller circles are previous model runs.   Remember, the GFS is run 4 times a day and can be erratic in the long range.

The GFS Ensembles (bunch of models) shows some agreement with the AO going negative soon.  It should be noted the Euro has us going negative with the AO soon as well and I would show you that from weatherbell.com, but they have a strict policy about distributing those products.

With the positive AO, we see ridging and a warm flow off the Pacific over the next few days.   The cold air and PV (polar vortex) locked up well into Canada.  The flow off the Pacific warms even further for areas east of the Rockies due to the downsloping effect.  That's why I think we'll be into the 70s and some places over OK, TX and MAYBE western AR could get close to 80.

Now as the AO goes negative, you can see the cold air in Canada getting a push southward as the pattern becomes more amplified by the middle of next week.  If you want cold air here, you really need ridging into western Canada and Alaska.  Downstream, you can see the trough by the middle of next week digging into the central and eastern United States.  This is a colder weather pattern for us.  But what about moisture?  Like I said above, with arctic air getting into the pattern, you must watch as these storm systems develop, but it's impossible to know this far in advance.  At least we have one ingredient right!?

We are tied with 2011-2012 for the fewest nights 32 degrees or colder this meteorological winter.

Temperature Roller Coaster Continues

You want warm weather, you got it!!!!   Next week is your week, but colder air should return.  This video goes over everything you need to know with trends over the next couple weeks.

All maps courtesy of Weatherbell.com Analytics.

So You're Saying There's A Chance?!

Courtesy "Dumb and Dumber" for this blog post.

Winter weather lovers, it's not good news, but you know I'm the type of person who tries to find something out of nothing.  The chance might be VERY slim, but I explain one way the forecast COULD change.

At this time, it's looking more like a cold rain and maybe a light wintry mix north.  This video goes over everything you need to know about Sunday and Monday!

Valentine's Day Trickery

No doubt that at this time, the forecast for Sunday and Monday are up in the air.  Pun intended.  This will likely come into focus within the next 1 to 2 days.

The Euro really backed off on the amount of frozen precip and I expected that to occur.  It was showing way too much.  

The Canadian is steady as she goes and I show that in the video below

The GFS is having issues.  It's putting emphasis on a surface low Monday and I am skeptical of its temperature profile.  This video goes over it all.  Enjoy!

Valentine's Day Trouble

Hey guys, are you planning on proposing Sunday to your girlfriend?  If you live across northern Arkansas, you may want to make it an indoor event!  Otherwise, she may not say "yes".  There's my Dr. Phil relationship advice today.

We have a LOT to talk about over the next couple weeks.  This video might be long, but it's LOADED with great information.  Here are the topics covered.

• WINTER WEATHER CHANCE INCREASING THIS WEEKEND
• MASSIVE WARM UP NOT TOO FAR AFTER
• AFTER MASSIVE WARM UP, WINTER IS NOT OVER!!!!!

Many of these maps are courtesy of EuroWx.com

Wild Temperature Swings PLUS Some Wintry Weather Possible

We have a lot to talk about over the next couple weeks.  This video goes over the following...

• WINTER WEATHER CHANCES THIS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
• A MASSIVE WARM UP POSSIBLE
• AN ABRUPT RETURN TO WINTER.

GFS and Euro Fighting Already On Valentine's Day

This is not good for their relationship.  It's not even Valentine's day and they can't get along.  Let's be honest, they have never really liked each other. HA!

Anyway, if you're a snow lover like me, there's hope.  I will caution you though, there are differences as you would expect in a long range forecast.

This video goes over the model fight,  the potential for a BIG warm up, and more cold air way down the road.  Maybe the Canadian will be the peacemaker.  Enjoy the video! 

Preliminary Look At Severe Weather Season

Before you get too concerned, I still think there's plenty of winter left! We have a few chilly days ahead, but nothing we haven't already seen this winter.  We'll get a 1-2 day break, then more cold air next weekend.

This time of year I begin to look at how our primary severe weather season may turn out. While there are many factors involved, I like to look at sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico.  Over the past few years, we have had several arctic intrusions into the Gulf and that cools those waters.  This can delay quality moisture when return flows set up ahead of storm systems.  That's one of the reasons why the past few severe weather seasons didn't get started until later in the spring.

This year is different.  With few cold air intrusions penetrating the Gulf, the sea surface temperature anomalies are positive.  This means the water temperatures are above average.  As storm systems roll through the plains, they will be able to pump warm and unstable air more efficiently into our region.

Like I said, there are other factors involved and this is just one piece of the puzzle and it's a piece that doesn't look good.  We still have more winter to go, but we may make a much quicker transition into severe weather season than the past few years.

Courtesy of weatherbell.com.  These are sea surface temperature anomalies in degrees C.  Notice there's a lot of orange and red over the Gulf and Atlantic.  I would like to find a site I can go back and look at years past at this point.   Stay tuned.

Remembering February 5th, 2008

It was "Super Tuesday" as many headed to the polls, then headed for cover as a major tornado outbreak hit the central portion of the country.  Arkansas was in the middle of it.  By the end of the day, an EF4 tornado tracked almost 122 miles continuously through western and northern Arkansas.  It was the longest track in recorded state weather history.  That single tornado claimed 13 lives and according to the tornado history project web site, almost 140 were injured.  A total of 12 twisters tore through Arkansas February 5th, 2008, 14 died, and almost 180 were injured.

It was a day none of us will ever forget.  The next day I was sent to Atkins to look at the damage and it was more heartbreaking than I ever imagined.  I saw homes and lives ripped apart.

Below are radar animations of that day, pictures I took, and some viewer photos as well.  Let's hope we never have anything like this again.

In this radar animation, you will see the supercell in front of the main line which caused the record breaking twister.  This was a text book example of an individual cell in front of the main line rotating.  We always watch those storms closely and now you know why.  As the main squall line moved through Little Rock, an official wind gust of 67 mph was recorded.  That's the 6th strongest on record.




When the main line came through Little Rock, it produced the 6th highest wind gust EVER recorded in Little Rock weather history at 67 mph.  Below is an animation of that line coming through during the evening hours. 

  

The actual tornado as it hit Atkins sent in from a KATV viewer.

Another shot of the historic tornado as it moved into northern Arkansas.

Photo courtesy of the National Weather Service in North Little Rock.  This is an aerial view of the boat plant destroyed in Clinton, AR

Track courtesy of the Tornado History Project

This and the following few pictures I took in Atkins the next day.

Atkins, Arkansas

Atkins, Arkansas

Photo from KATV crews the next day in Clinton, Arkansas

Clinton, Arkansas

Mountain View, Arkansas damage

Here's the convective outlook that day ( 2-5-08) issued by the Storm Prediction Center.  High risks are rare!

Why Long Range Forecasting Can Be Like Throwing Darts

Quick post about next week and why long range forecasting is very difficult and sometimes like throwing darts.  The first image is the operational GFS for its morning run on Saturday, January 30th valid for Tuesday, February 9th.  The blue line is the 540 line and a good indicator of the rain/snow line.  See that "U" shape it makes over the west and central portions of the country?  That's telling you there's a trough over that area and cold air is on the move south at the surface.  It develops a wave of low pressure along the boundary in the northern Gulf with precip overrunning to the north over Arkansas in the form of snow. 

Fast forward to the afternoon run of the GFS today (February 4th) valid for the same time period, February 8th.  It has the trough, but instead of it over the west and central portions of the country, it's over the central and east with the coldest air directed into the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley.  Since we are now on the western side of the trough, it means a cold and mostly dry northerly flow aloft without any storm to deal with.  This post is also a reminder that what the models indicate 7-10 days from now are likely in la-la land.  

I thought it was interesting to show you how much a model can change over the course of a few days and why I don't like jumping on any particular solution.  You look for trends.  I will admit, I did think something would pop for us around Mardi Gras, but all we can hope for are a couple snow flurries or snow showers, especially over northern Arkansas.  This is still several days away and I have seen the models flip quickly in another direction.  But the data is hard to ignore at this point.  

Snow lovers, don't give up!  There's still plenty of winter left and I'm optimistic.  Can anyone calculate how many days until next winter? LOL

GFS run from Saturday morning January 30th valid for late Tuesday, February 8th

Afternoon run of the GFS Thursday valid at the same time, Tuesday February 8th.

February Made Me Shiver With Every Forecast I Delivered

My apologies to one of my favorite songs of all-time, "American Pie" by Don McLean.

It's cold now, but I think it will get even colder next week and with that arctic chill, there MIGHT be a few flakes.  This video goes over that PLUS one more rant about political polls vs computer models.

Political Polls = Computer Models PLUS A Look At 2 Snow Chances

Those 2 snow chances do not look all that great, but at least it's something to watch.

I have been trying to think of a way to best describe computer models and how they relate to a forecast.  I think I may have stumbled upon something.  There may be a correlation between all those models and political polls.  Check out the video for an explanation.

Massive Outbreak of Flurries?

That headline is just a little sarcasm.  I really don't know what has gotten into me lately, but it all started Monday night watching the returns from the Iowa Hawkeye Caukeye ( a little rhyming there).  Cable news graphics had Hillary Clinton at 50%, Sanders at 50%, and OMalley at 1%.  Math is hard, huh? 101% of the vote?  LOL!  That's as far into politics you will see me go on this blog!

Anyway, models continue to indicate a nice blast of cold air next week with an upper level flow out of the north and northwest.  There MIGHT be embedded disturbances in that flow that can kick off a few areas of flurries and snow showers.  This is NOT how we get big snows in Arkansas, but you can see some minor accumulations, especially in the higher elevations of northern Arkansas.  These disturbances will be moisture starved, but cold air does squeeze some moisture out.  So if you're wanting more snow, there MIGHT be a little.

The Operational Euro shows a large trough of low pressure digging early next week with a blast of cold air.  The flow over Arkansas will be out of the north and northwest.

The Euro shows the potential for a few areas of light snow or flurries late Monday.  Anything out of this type of pattern is typically minor.

The GFS shows basically the same thing.

IN SUMMARY... The cold is coming back next week, but at this time, significant widespread snow looks unlikely.  Can this change, YEP!  Models have been nothing short of horrible this winter.  However, it's hard to ignore the current data.

On My Soapbox Because I'm Not "Normal"

Please allow me a moment to get on my soapbox, then I'll go back to talking about the weather.

Too many times the phrase "normal temperature for this time of year" is thrown around.  There's nothing "normal" about a particular days high temperature.  For example, when you hear the "normal high temperature for February 1st is 52 degrees", it's a completely wrong way to describe what one may expect for that day.  In reality, there's much more variance involved

The National Weather Service bases that number on an AVERAGE of a 30 year period.  At this time, I believe that 30 year average is from 1980 to 2010.

Here are the high temperatures (in the second column) for every February 1st from 1980 to 2010

FEBRUARY 1ST HIGH TEMPERATURE 1980 TO 2010 FOR LITTLE ROCK

The so called "normal" high for this day is 52 degrees.  Notice during this period, it has never been "normal".  Not once was it 52 degrees... NOT ONCE!  It's an "average"...  plain and simple!  The average high temperature for February 1st is 52 degrees.

So I'm leading the charge to change the Climo summary from the NWS.  LOL.  In reality it's not a big deal, just a pet peeve of mine! 

Ok, I'm getting off my soapbox and I'll return to weather.  Data points to coldest air so far this season next week.  I'm not ready to buy that at this time.  I think it gets cold, but to what degree is in question.  See what I did there? LOL

What about snow chances?  When arctic air gets involved, it's always possible.  So it's really not going out on any limb to say we must watch for any moisture which gets involved.  More later.