Goodbye January Thaw and Let's Watch Mardi Gras

Interesting how that rhymes, huh?  Transitioning from the mild January thaw to colder air will be bumpy for some, but not everyone.   As a colder weather pattern develops, we need to watch for any moisture that can get involved and there's at least some potential down the road.  It's interesting to note Mardi Gras 2014 and 2015 both had snow falling or on the ground in Little Rock.  I'm not saying that's going to happen this year, but some of the data is having deja vu all over again.

This video goes over the following...

• Timing of the cold front Tuesday
• Where the worst of the storms will likely be located
• The severe threats
• Some of the data says winter weather may not be too far away

Arkansas is in Fatality Alley

With the threat for overnight severe weather next Monday evening into Tuesday morning, I thought it would be important to show you why we're always concerned with overnight storms.  How this next event unfolds is still not completely clear.  The fact that it's coming in at night may limit the overall potential.  If this system slows down and it comes in Tuesday PM, then the concern will be raised for more severe weather.

There are even signs a strong cold front will sink through Arkansas Monday and push the warm/moist air to the south.   That means we will need to watch how quickly the high levels of instability returns to the north.  Anyway, I'll post more about that later.  Please read the following.


Several years ago, meteorologist Ashley Walker worked on some important research.  He found out that portions of Arkansas are in what's called "Fatality Alley" meaning there are more deaths caused by tornadoes in sections of Arkansas, Mississippi, Tennessee, and Alabama than any other place in the country.

Research from Meteorologist Walker Ashley with Northern Illinois University

If the new statistics from the National Weather Service and research from Walker Ashley aren't a wake up call, I don't know what is?    Here are a few of reasons portions of the mid south are in "fatality alley"

• Mobile home density. The NIU meteorologist said 44 percent of all fatalities during tornadoes occur in mobile homes, compared to 25 percent in permanent houses. The southeast United States has the highest percentage of mobile-home stock compared with any other region east of the Continental Divide. “Mobile homes make up 30 to 40 percent of the housing stock in some counties in the deep South,” Ashley said. “By far, mobile homes are the most vulnerable structures in a tornadic situation.”
• Nighttime tornadoes. The southeast United States has a higher likelihood of killer nighttime tornadoes. Most states within this region have greater percentages of tornado fatalities occurring at night than other states.“I just completed another study that shows tornadoes from the midnight to sunrise period are 2.5 times as likely to kill as daytime events,” Ashley said. Further, nocturnal tornadoes are more difficult to spot, and people are more likely to be asleep when warnings are issued.
• Forested areas. Whereas regions within the Great Plains by definition are lacking in tree cover, the mid-South region is more forested, leading to reduced visibility both for the public and spotters.
• Early season storms. Storms that occur before the national peak in the severe storm season, which spans May and June, may catch people off guard during a tornado event.
• Complacency. In contrast to other parts of the country, the South lacks a focused “tornado season,” which can lead to complacency. “In the South, people think tornado alley is where you get tornadoes,” Ashley said. “That sort of perception also leads to complacency, which in turn leads to higher fatality rates.” He points out that Oklahoma is known worldwide for the frequency of its tornadoes. Yet the state has fewer fatalities than Arkansas, Alabama and Mississippi.

The media and the National Weather Service must intensify efforts to save lives.  I don't want to underestimate the current efforts because I know many work hard and long hours to communicate life saving information.  New ideas and initiatives must be explored to change this unfortunate fact of life in the mid south.

Major Storm System To Start February

For about a week now we have been talking about the beginning of February and the possible significant storm system.  We'll be on the warm side of this initially and that means we have the possibility for strong to severe thunderstorms.  Much colder air should follow as winter roars back.  At this time, I don't see any moisture involved with the cold air return, but February is usually our snowiest month.  For those asking if we'll see more snow this winter, I think the chance is good.  It's not a matter of if, but when in my opinion.  At this time, I don't see anything over the next 7 days though

This video goes over

• The possible near record breaking high temperatures this weekend
• How the next storm system will impact Arkansas
• The possibility for northwest Arkansas light snow
• New snowpack to the north may influence our return to cold weather
• The chance for cold weather to last for awhile.

Major Storm On The Horizon

We have an enormous storm system to deal with next week.  I think the impact from this storm will be much worse towards the north of Arkansas with blizzard conditions.  We will feel the effects in the form of rain and thunderstorms followed by a blast of cold air.

This video goes over...

• NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
• WHAT MAY PREVENT TEMPERATURES FROM STRONGLY REBOUNDING
• TRACK OF THE STORM
• THUNDERSTORM THREAT TIMING
• SNOW POTENTIAL IN ARKANSAS
• WHERE THE BIGGER SNOWFIELDS DEVELOP
• HOW THOSE SNOWFIELDS WILL INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER

Spring vs Winter

8PM Tuesday Update... This may seem random, but a I want to share a story with you about a weathergeek I knew many years ago.  My first job out of college was at a TV station in Missoula, Montana. The people there thought it was funny how excited I got over snow.  Snow to them is like rain to us... not a big deal.

One day I received a call from a viewer in Hamilton, Montana which is located in the southern Bitterroot Valley.  He loved the snow just as much as I did, if not more.  He would frequently call in snow amounts and we would talk about the next big storm heading into Big Sky country.  On one occasion, I remember a narrow, heavy band of snow set up over his location and dumped 15 inches while just 5 miles down the road nothing fell.  It was something we often talked about in amazement, but to everyone else, it was just another cold winter day.

After moving to Chattanooga, TN for my next TV job, we lost touch.  A few months into the new job, I received a phone call from his wife.  My friend had died in a car accident caused by slick roads.  I guess it's just the winter season and hearing from everyone who loves the snow that always brings back Tony's memory this time of year.  I know he's up there rooting for more snow.

_________________________________________________________________________


A major seasonal clash is about to occur and the fight takes place directly over the central portion of the country.  It's that time of year when spring and winter  really fight it out and all of the guidance we use indicates a storm system will have a major impact starting next Monday into Tuesday.

At this time, it appears the storm will track north of the state putting Arkansas firmly in the warm sector and that means we must watch for possible strong to severe thunderstorms.  As is always the case, specifics this far out are impossible.  I expect a major snow storm with blizzard conditions further north from Colorado to Minnesota so airline travel will be affected.

When the cold air begins to get chased out by the warmer air off the Gulf and Pacific.  I would not be surprised to see widespread fog develop with the cold ground from recent snow.  This may keep temperatures from strongly rebounding.  However, I think there's still a good chance to get highs well into the 70s Sunday and Monday of next week and we could challenge record highs.

This is the transition from the January thaw to a colder weather pattern.  Once the low passes by, a return to winter temperatures will be likely, but at this time, I don't see much moisture.

The arctic oscillation index is a fantastic tool to forecast trends within 2 weeks.  Notice the negative AO earlier this month and that correlates to the below average temperatures.  Then the AO goes positive and that's the current milder pattern we're in right now.  During the first week of February, it's forecast to go towards neutral to slightly negative.  How long it stays there is a big question at this point.

A very mild "zonal" flow (west to east) will flood the country with Pacific air late this week into the weekend.  I think highs in the 70s will be possible. 

A strong storm system develops over the western United States.  This will bring rain and storms Monday into Tuesday followed by cold air again.

Winter Storm Update.

12:15PM Thursday Update....  Nothing much has changed at all.  I still think the worst of this will be over portions of central, eastern, and northeastern Arkansas.

I expect rain to change to sleet/freezing rain, then to snow.  The amount of sleet may cut into snow totals.  Regardless, travel will be messy.

Winds will also become very strong as this system wraps up tonight and that raises the concern for power outages.  The most likely area for this will be eastern Arkansas.

It's completely possible to have thundersleet and thundersnow.  Where convection and banding occurs, higher snow and sleet amounts will be likely.  It's extremely difficult to pinpoint where that will happen, but the most likely area will be eastern Arkansas.

I want to quote Meteorologist Ryan Vaughan at our sister station in Jonesboro.  This really sums up what we're dealing with.  NO snow/ice forecast will be perfect.

"This is like predicting what a bull will do when it comes into the arena. We know it is coming in... but what it does when it gets here is questionable! Giddy up!"

Below are maps from the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh) off of WeatherBell.com.  This will not be perfect, but it goes over timing.

To summarize.

• The worst will move in tonight and early Friday morning
• Rain will change to sleet/freezing rain then to snow
• Highest amounts likely on the eastern side of the metro into eastern Arkansas
• Winds will be very strong and power outages will be possible, especially east
• Roads will become slick and hazardous
• Many schools will likely close Friday.

GREEN = RAIN

PURPLE = SLEET/FREEZING RAIN

BLUE = SNOW

6PM

7PM

8PM

9PM

10PM

11PM

Midnight

1AM

Oh Snow!

You know I always say things can always change and beginning last night, they really did!  The early Wednesday models converged on the idea eastern and southeastern Arkansas would get the highest snow amounts.  Last night, the NAM led the way with the change.  The upper low was more intense and a bit further to the northwest.  This shifts the axis of the heaviest snow westward.  The GFS followed, but the amounts were not as much, but still significant.  The Euro is showing a track a bit further to the south and east.  So once again, this is STILL a situation that can change.  With that said, it's looking favorable for significant snow for much of the Channel 7 viewing area.  I think 2-6'' will be very possible for much of central, northeast, and eastern Arkansas.  Higher amounts will be possible where banding and convection can enhance snow rates.  Yes, there might be thundersnow.

Here's one more concern I have.  The models have been nothing short of horrible with temperatures and that's always expected in arctic air situations.  How much above freezing, if any, do we get today?  There's a whole new round of moisture coming in during the day and there's the potential for some of this to be ice, especially across northern Arkansas.  I talked about this in a blog post a couple days ago.  I mentioned it would be possible for some locations to stay mostly with frozen precip.  Again, that most favored area is northern Arkansas, but the southern extent is in question.

Once the surface low passes and the upper level low comes into play, there will be a transition to all snow from west to east this evening.  Again, that snow may be heavy in some locations where the deformation zone sets up.  This is located north and west of the upper level low.  Exactly where this sets up is very difficult to predict, but it should be somewhere around central to eastern and northeastern Arkansas.


The following maps are the GFS from weatherbell.com

Green = rain
purple = freezing rain
peach = sleet
blue = snow

Red line is the 32 degree line
Blue line is the 35 degree line
Black solid lines are isobars (Lines of equal barometric pressure)

6AM to NOON Thursday

Noon To 6PM Thursday

6PM Thursday to midnight Friday morning

Midnight to 6AM Thursday

6AM to Noon Friday

Noon to 6PM Friday

The GFS run from last night

The overnight run of the NAM

The Channel 7 forecast as of this Thursday morning

Here We Snow Again

While there could be some light icing tonight and Thursday, especially over northern Arkansas, the main round of wintry weather will arrive Thursday night into early Friday morning.

The models are starting to come into some sort of agreement at this time, but PLEASE KNOW THIS IS STILL VERY MUCH CHANGEABLE!!!!!

The focus, at this time, appears to be over eastern and maybe even southeastern Arkansas for the greatest amounts.  That does not mean other areas of the state will not get snow.  It's possible for lighter amounts further west.  I fully expect winter weather advisories, winter storm watches, and winter storm warnings to be issued over the next 24 hours for this system.

If you are traveling, expect airline delays as a ripple effect will be likely due to a huge east coast storm.

This video goes over the GFS and Euro runs from this Wednesday morning and includes.

1. What to expect Thursday 
2. When the main precipitation arrives
3. Who has the highest chance for snow
4. the differences and similarities between the models
5. A possible strong snow gradient... large change in amounts over short distance

Thank you very much for coming to the Arkansas Weather Blog for your in depth winter weather information.

Winter Gone Wild

9PM Tuesday Update... This still looks like a light event, quick moving, and there will be travel issues north.  How far south the freezing line gets is the big question.  I have sat at 34.7 in west Little Rock for hours.  New data even warms the metro overnight.  It's going to be a close call for us in the Little Rock metro and I urge you to watch Channel 7 Daybreak for the newest information.  Once again, it will be light and quick moving and the focus will be northern Arkansas.

Now onto the comment section.  I mentioned below some of the data points to the precip staying frozen for portions of northern Arkansas most of Thursday with the next system .  Here's the data showing that.  Not saying that's what will happen, but some of the models indicate it.

Noon Thursday.

6PM Thursday.

Midnight Friday.

_______________________________________________________________________

Well the chorus of voices has already changed from "where's winter" to "I want the warm weather back".  LOL.  I told you to be careful with what you asked for!

We have only had one minor event so far, but there's at least two more on the table.  I'll address the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning system first.

I was taught to always look at the data and ask, what could go wrong with your forecast?  In my opinion, where does the freezing line end up is a key question.  Remember, arctic air is dense and does not move easily.  I'm writing this early Tuesday afternoon and the temperature in west Little Rock is only 35 degrees with a dew point of 12 degrees.  There's plenty of room to drop.  The European model takes that freezing line a little further south tonight and that's my concern.  The models are not doing a great job with the cold air and that's to be expected.  By far, the best chance for sleet and freezing rain will be northern Arkansas and the cold air will be deep enough close to the Missouri border for mostly snow.  Also, very important, amounts will not be heavy.  That's why a winter weather advisory is in effect instead of a winter storm watch/warning.  But we all know it does not take much ice to cause problems on the roads.  As far as the biggest impacts are concerned, I think that's roads and school closings.  I'm not too worried about power outages at all.  

At this time, I think the freezing line (32 degrees) may be a little further south than what most models are predicting.  This may put portions of central Arkansas in the winter weather advisory.   We'll see how that plays out.  Southern Arkansas, just plain rain.

Now onto the next system Thursday.  There's a good chance, the precipitation stays mostly frozen over northern Arkansas for the majority of the event.  It's not until the surface low passes, we get air cold enough in central Arkansas for a transition to snow.  Accumulations?  It's too early to pin point at this time, but I don't think it will be too heavy for central Arkansas, BUT it does have potential to bring enough to satisfy some snow lovers!  We're NOT talking about a huge storm here!  The favored locations at this time are across northern and eastern Arkansas.  

By the way, if you're traveling to the east coast later this week, expect major delays and a major winter storm there.

BELOW IS THE EUROPEAN MODEL.  IT IS NOT A FORECAST!  THIS IS A TOOL USED TO MAKE OUR FORECAST.  IT WILL NOT VERIFY EXACTLY, BUT IT'S GOOD GUIDANCE AND SHOWS OUR CONCERN.  I PROMISE YOU, THESE MAPS WILL NOT VERIFY EXACTLY.

Below are model maps from EuroWx.com.

The Tuesday morning run of the European favors ice amounts a little further south than some of the other models I have seen.  That's my worry.  Notice all amounts are under .2''.  That's advisory criteria and not warning criteria.  Warning criteria is .25'' or more.  While amounts will be light, it will cause problems on the roads and I expect school closings north.  If the European is correct, some of that wintry weather could make it as far south as Conway or northern Pulaski county.  It's a tough call for sure!!!!!!!!

Snow amounts Tuesday night and Wednesday morning could be around 1-2 inches close to the Missouri border.  This is where the cold air is deep enough to support mostly snow.

Now onto round #2.  This arrives Thursday with a mix across northern Arkansas and rain across central and south Arkansas.

By Thursday night, cold air pours south and a transition may occur to wintry weather across much of the northern 1/2 of the state.  Southern Arkansas MIGHT see a LITTLE too.

THIS IS NOT A FORECAST.  IT'S ONLY MODEL GUIDANCE AND THIS WILL CHANGE... I PROMISE!  On the back side of the system there may be a couple inches of snow and maybe a bit more further north and east.  This depends on how much moisture there is and the track of the low.  I promise this will NOT verify exactly, but you see my concern.

Winter's Assault Peppered With Storms

I was listening to a local radio station this afternoon on my way home and heard them say the light dusting of snow in Little Rock was a "surprise".  I realize no snow forecast will ever be 100% perfect.  I did call for higher amounts north, but I didn't think they would get 1-2 inches as the weather service reported.  I know some locations did get an inch, but I have not seen any pictures supporting the 2 inches.

Why do I bring this up?  This type of reporting only feeds the perception weather guys are always wrong.  After big tornado outbreaks, how many times have you heard news anchors, mostly national media, say it hit without warning?  I'll never forget Diane Sawyer saying that after a round of January tornadoes a few years ago.  The fact of the matter was they were forecast many days in advance.  

Yes, I have gotten forecasts wrong and I learn from those mistakes.  No one is perfect, but I think we do a heck of a good job as technology continues to evolve and makes forecasting better.

Ok, now let's focus on the weather forecast and the next 2 rounds of wintry weather.

If you have read my blog posts over the past several years, you know I always say arctic air is dense and difficult to dislodge.  It's like trying to move a brick with the force of the water from your garden hose.  As a new disturbance arrives late Tuesday, I think the northern 1/3 of the state may have a round of sleet and freezing rain.  Some snow may fly close to the Missouri border for awhile.  I do not expect huge amounts, but it will be enough to impact travel.  Winter weather advisories will likely be issued in my opinion.

The next system arrives Thursday and that's the stronger of the two.  This will bring a good chance for rain and as it departs and cold air moves in along the back side, I expect the rain to change to snow.  Don't hang your hat on every model run that comes out.  I really think we have a good chance for accumulating snows over northern and MAYBE central Arkansas.

One other item of interest.  The Climate Prediction Center continues to use the red paint bomb all over the United States in their 8-14 day outlook.  It seems they religiously follow the GFS which is usually not all that reliable in that time frame.  I'm a little baffled by their decision to continue that today (Monday) after I looked at the GFS ensemble forecast.  I realize some places may go above average, but I think they are overdoing this! I'll have maps below.

Wednesday midnight to 6AM shows icing likely north.  The solid red line is the 32 degree line and that's running from south of Fayetteville to the northeast corner of the state.  It's a cold rain elsewhere.  I don't expect large amounts, but it will be enough to cause driving concerns and some school cancellations possible up north.

After rain Thursday, it may change to snow Thursday night into Friday morning over the northern half of the state.  Do not take this map literally.  It's from the GFS and it runs 4 times a day and comes up with 4 different solutions, but there is a chance here for accumulating snows.

CPC has a red paint bomb in the 8-14 day outlook meaning they think there's a high chance for above average temperatures for EVERYONE.  I have doubts.

Even the GFS, which they tend to really like, shows average to below average temperatures in that time period over the central U.S.  directly where they think the highest chance exists for above average temperatures.  We'll see.

Active Weather Week Ahead

All those snow dances are working!  We had a brief round of snow over western Arkansas Saturday and more chances down the road.

This video goes over...

1. Possible flurries and snow showers Sunday night into Monday morning
2. Very cold air settles in
3. Another round of precipitation late Tuesday into early Wednesday
4. A stronger storm system brings rain/storms Thursday
5. A possible change to snow before ending late Thursday into early Friday
6. The Arctic Oscillation index may not be going towards positive (warmer phase).

Snow Pep Talk

I think all snow lovers out there need a little pep talk and that includes me too.  Yes, we're very disappointed about the lack of snow.  Twitter and Facebook comments are even going so far as to say "WINTER IS OVER"!  I can't disagree more with that.  IT'S ONLY MID JANUARY!!!!

By now many of you know how much admire the long range forecasting work of WeatherBell meteorologist Joe Bastardi.  He predicted a mild December a long time ago and said January through March would be prime months.  Even he will admit the warmth was overwhelmingly more than he thought in December.  I haven't looked at other cities around the country, but Little Rock's average temperature was 9 degrees ABOVE average.  That's a lot to overcome in January and February and I have big doubts he will hit his forecast for below average temperatures around -3 to -4.  One thing we can all agree about is the fact we have had a pattern change and we are getting cold air intrusions in January.  One arrives this weekend.

Joe's forecast and the forecast I showed here on the blog and on the air LAST SUMMER, called for snowfall to be 150 to 200% of average.  Our average snow in Little Rock is only a bit more than 3 inches.  So that's 5-6''.  As I have said here and on TV, we can get that in one night while you're asleep.  The bottom line, winter isn't over in my opinion and I'll show you why historically in a bit.

Let's also look at perception.  There were several bogus forecasts shared all over Facebook months ago calling for a horrible winter. While winter can still get brutal, I think we all know those forecasts are not from reliable sources.  Add to that maps all over social media showing snow chances from the Rockies to east coast for a period within 2 weeks is not a forecast and does not originate from reliable sources.  There's nothing anyone can do about it and there's nothing anyone should do about it.  It's their freedom to do that, but I urge you to be cautious with those forecasts.

My intention is not to degrade anybody for trying to make a forecast, but just to give you some information and my thoughts.

I encourage you to read this article written by Meteorologist James Spann from our sister station in Birmingham, AL.

http://www.alabamawx.com/?p=98058

Let's go back to December 2014 and January 2015.  I remember the chorus of social media voices asking me when winter was going to arrive and many gave up hope.  Then February hit and we all know what happened and how long kids had to stay in school to make up those days.

JANUARY 2015

FEBRUARY 2015

You can see the big difference between the two months with just a trace in January and then 5.3'' in February which is 150-200% of average.

I'm not saying to expect a snowy February, even though I think we'll get some.  I want all of those who are losing hope to realize there's plenty of time.   Also, in Arkansas, be careful with what you ask for.  Last August and September we were in a drought.  Are we in one now?  Have you seen those rivers and streams?   Things can change quickly around here.

Over the past 15 years, it's interesting to note January is the least snowiest month of winter.  Even though March is not in meteorological winter, I wanted to include it since we have had big snows in March.  I remember back-to-back big snows in March 2008 and even last year (2015). 

Just for fun, we'll eliminate the big Christmas snow of 2012.  January is still close to December as the least snowiest month.  Look at February!!!

My data above only takes into account the past 15 years, but this graphic takes into account the average snowfall each month over the past 30 years.

Weather Roller Coaster

We have a lot to talk about over the next 7-10 days and this blog video goes over all of that for you.

• Another batch of very cold arctic air
• a couple SMALL chances for LIGHT snow
• Another quick warm up
• More cold air later next week and storm system to watch

We're Not In December Anymore

Like Dorothy was not in Kansas anymore, I think we can safely say the warm weather in December is nothing but a distant memory.

An area of low pressure aloft is moving through the area with rainfall.  The air above us is super cold so it's snowing just off the surface.  If temperatures were a bit colder here, we would have snow.  As it is now, some snow is mixing in with the rain as far south as central Arkansas.  Later this afternoon and early evening, the rain could change to some wet snowflakes before ending according to new hi resolution model data.  Temperatures in the metro should stay above freezing until early Sunday morning.  At that time the moisture will be gone.  At this time, we're expecting little if any accumulation due to the warmer surface temperatures IF it does turn to a little snow.

MUCH colder and drier air will work into the state tonight with strong winds.  This will clear skies out and take wind chill values down into the single digits and teens.

The following maps of the HRRR is from weatherbell.com

Valid at 6PM, the rain could be changing to snow on the north side of the metro over to north central AR, HOWEVER, look at the purple line.  That's the 32 degree line.  Everthing along and north of it is at or below freezing.  We're above in central and NE Arkansas.

By 8PM, the area where snow is possible is along the 67/167 corridor.  Once again, it's ABOVE 32 degrees.

At 10PM, the precip. is exiting the state and the 32 degree line is STILL north of the metro.

Bitterly cold wind chills when you wake up Sunday morning.

Saturday Snow

This is going to be an interesting storm system to follow over the next 2 days.  While most of today (Friday) should be uneventful, rain and storms will move in tonight.  There may be enough instability for a few strong storms tonight and there could be some small hail.

Then I think much of southern and maybe central Arkansas will get "dry slotted" for awhile as the surface low strengthens.  Cold air will wrap around the low and temperatures will fall once that low passes by your location.  The moisture in the cold air just north and west of the track will change to snow and that favored area is northwest and north central Arkansas.  Is it possible to have flakes fly as far south as central Arkansas? Yes, BUT the chance is not all that great and there should be NO accumulation.  Flurries at best.  

I can't stress this enough.. this is NOT a major storm and its main impacts will be across north central and northwest Arkansas.

MUCH colder air will be felt with strong winds Sunday bringing down wind chill values.  I really thing the models may be a touch too warm next week, but that's another post for another day.  I have a ton of maps detailing EVERYTHING including threats, timing, and accumulation.  Snow lovers, this is just the start of a fun January and February!!!!  Let's sit back and enjoy!  For all of you who do not like winter, you get the other 10 months of the year. LOL

Many of these maps are courtesy of weatherbell.com 

Rain and storms will move across the state Friday night into Saturday morning.  The severe threat is quite low, but some small hail will be possible along with lightning and thunder.  This simulated radar is valid at 6AM Saturday.

By noon Saturday, the low is pulling into NE Arkansas and cold air and moisture is wrapping around the west side of it.  Notice the rain over the north and portions of central Arkansas.  Rain has changed to snow over northwest Arkansas.

By 3PM, temperatures continue to fall and it's cold enough for snow across north central Arkansas.  Cold rain showers further south.

I just wanted to show you simulated satellite to illustrate the dry slot.  This is at midnight early Saturday morning.  There's extensive cloud cover across the state.  The blues indicate the higher cloud tops and possible thunderstorms.

As the system wraps up and intensifies, by 9AM Saturday, it's pulling dry air into southern Arkansas.  the moisture over western and Arkansas and eastern OK is wrapping around the low counterclockwise.

The European model shows the possible accumulations over the north and it's all less than an inch, but the higher elevations could see more.  Remember, these are only models and this is NOT a big snow maker.

The GFS shows something similar.  While it's different in amounts, there is agreement where the best chance for snow will be located.

Then there's the NAM.  I think it's overdone. 4-5 inches?  While I can't discount it completely, this model is an outlier. 

The RPM, which is a model I really do not like.  It's run a dozen times a day.  It gets one out of 12 runs right and people jump up and down claiming it nailed it.  

Here's my preliminary forecast and the best course of action at this time.

BOTTOM LINE... this is NOT a big storm with its main impacts across northwest Arkansas.  No need to run out and buy milk and bread.  If anything changes, I'll let you know.