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Wednesday, October 28, 2015

Trick-Or-Treat to November Heat



Lots going on in the wide world of weather.  We'll have a chance for some rain today then a much better chance Saturday (Halloween).

All signs are pointing towards BIG time warmth the first week of November.  As a matter of fact, record highs may be challenged in about a week.  This video goes over everything you need and want to know.


Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Halloween Mess?



"When will it stop raining?"  No doubt I will get that question a few times over the next week at least.  When the weather decides to change, IT DOES!  The wildfire danger is low and most of the burn bans are gone.  Now, we have another rain maker starting later Friday into Halloween.   Sorry, trick-or-treaters, but we'll be dodging rain.  The heaviest should fall during the day, but there's at least a little hope for the evening hours.  Here's everything you need to know.


Thursday, October 22, 2015

From Drought To Deluge




You know all those burn bans in effect?  By this time next week, I bet there will be few if any still up.  The focus for the rain initially will be across the northwest half of the state.  There will be little if any southeast until next week.

The remnant moisture from a Pacific hurricane may enhance rainfall amounts next Tuesday into Wednesday.

This video goes over everything including the colder air to follow next week and a sneak peak into Halloween.



Wednesday, October 21, 2015

Drought Busting Rain and Colder Air

Here we go.  We'll go from less than an inch of rain from mid July to now to getting that much in just a few short hours late this week and this weekend.  There should be a couple distinct rounds of rain.  The first as a front works into the state along with waves of energy, then we may ramp chances up again Tuesday as a tropical low comes out of the Gulf of Mexico.  Some of that moisture will be from a Pacific tropical storm too and that may enhance rainfall amounts.

This video goes over everything you need to know.  By the time you finish watching, you'll be singing "Purple Rain".  You'll understand once you begin watching.


Friday, October 16, 2015

Drought To Topical Moisture

Models are showing the chance for some tropical moisture later next week.  We need rain, but sometimes you have to be careful about what you ask for.  This video goes into everything you need to know


Wednesday, October 7, 2015

Got Rain?!

Hope you had a chance to watch the video in the previous post with Weatherbell Meteorologist Joe Bastardi.  To summarize Joe, he's expecting temperatures well below average and snowfall above average.  It's a good idea to put the snowfall forecast in some perspective.  Little Rock has an snowfall average of 3.5''.  Joe is predicting snow to be around 150-200% of average.  That's around 5-7 inches.  We can get that in only a few short hours around here.  He also believes there's a good chance December will feature above average temperatures with a much colder pattern evolving January through March.  Why do I talk about Joe so much?  He has hit many more seasonal forecasts than he's missed.

Now onto a personal note, I'm moving.  Not away from Little Rock.  I don't want to move away from home.  When my wife and I moved back here 10 years ago, we got a house that was great for the two of us.  Then 2 little boys came along and all the things Christmas and birthdays bring.  We needed a little more space so we found something just a few miles away.   That means I will have video blogs from a new office.  That should be interesting.  Right now, the walls in that office are purple.  It's not bad, but I have some work on it.  It's exciting and tiring as many of you know.

Now onto the subject of this post, we need rain!!!  I don't think we are in a long term drought and we should begin to come out of this.  In an El Nino, we typically have above average precipitation.  When that pattern evolves is a good question.  I just don't see it anytime soon.  We have a weak front with small rain chances Friday.  Some places may see up to .25'' of rainfall, but we'll have a quick return to dry weather.  At least Race For The Cure looks good weatherwise.  Another front will move through the state Monday night, but will have hardly any moisture with it.  I have been looking at long range models and they continue to indicate above average temperatures through the middle of the month and maybe beyond.

Never fear, the weather will change.  Unfortunately, you really have to be careful with what you ask for around here.  You want rain?  Mother Nature can over deliver sometimes.

Below is the Climate Prediction Center's precipitation forecast for October, November, and December.  According to it, the odds tilt to above average precipitation.  During this 3 month time period, that's around 15 inches.  BTW, the Little Rock airport has only received .88'' of rain since July 16th.  We need rain, just don't bring it all at once Mother Nature!

NOAA 3 month precipitation outlook October through December