Meteorologist Joe Bastardi On Winter and Fall Severe Weather

Meteorologist Joe Bastardi with Weatherbell.com shares his thoughts on our secondary severe weather season (late fall into early winter) PLUS what this winter may bring and the driving forces behind it.

You'll even hear him talk about the next few winters ahead!  Fascinating stuff!!!!!

WINTER FORECAST 2015-2016

Full credit to Meteorologist Joe Bastardi at Weatherbell Analytics for this winter forecast.  Joe has proven to be a very reliable long range forecaster.  While we stick to forecasts within the next 7 to 10 days at Channel 7, Joe is one of the best researching long range patterns and signals.

Please put this forecast in context.  Central Arkansas averages 3.5 inches of snow per year.  If Joe forecasts 150 to 200% of average, that's roughly 5-7 inches.  I have seen that much snow fall in just a few short hours.  As far as temperatures are concerned, he is forecasting seasonal temperatures about 3 degrees below average.  That's chilly!

There's no doubt you will hear the term, "El Nino" in the media, but that's only one piece of the puzzle.  There are other factors influencing our weather.  I'll give you an example.  A few years ago, a La Nina was occurring.  Forecasts were for a dry and mild winter, but it turned out to be one of the coldest and snowiests in more than 20 years.  Why?  The Arctic Oscillation was strongly negative for most of the winter and that tends to suppress the storm track pushing cold air deep into the south.  The AO is tough to forecast more than a couple weeks out.  

Again, Joe has done a great job and his forecasts deserve you attention.  Check out his blog at Weatherbell.com and follow him on twitter @BigJoeBastardi.

Central Arkansas average temperatures and snowfall.

    

    

Best Air In Months PLUS The Tropics

The promised "Pumpkin Spice Cold Front" is on the way and this video goes over several things...

• Rain/storm chances tonight and Friday (September 10th and 11th)
• BIG COOL DOWN THIS WEEKEND!!!
• Warm up next week
• Any tropical activity which can influence our weather down the road
• We are climatologically in the most active time of year for tropical activity and when do our chances typically decrease in Arkansas for remnant storms?

Pumpkin Spice Cold Front

Why not?  When coffee shops start bringing out the "Pumpkin Spice", you know it's fall.  So we'll call the next front that because we should have a taste of fall by the middle of the month

Also, in this video I talk about the winter forecast issued by WeatherBell.com meteorologist Joe Bastardi.  Enjoy!