From Heat To Storms To Cooler Air

This small heat wave is coming to an end soon and it will be replaced by some fantastic air!  This video goes over the heat, the severe weather possible as we transition to the cooler air, and how long the cooler air sticks around.  It's an entertaining video with a very helpful guest!

Tropical Rains to Tropical Heat

Let's get tropical!  If we're going to do it, then do it big, right?  I hate the heat and humidity, but we're going to have to deal with the hottest weather so far this year in the extended.  I think it's possible for heat advisories next week for portions of Arkansas

In this video...

1. Tropical rains from Bill
2. When he leaves Arkansas
3. When does the heat arrive
4. Where will the hottest temperatures be found
5. How high will the heat index readings reach.
6. And a special guest appearance too!

Bill and Major Heat

Bill will bring possible flash flooding and river flooding to Arkansas over the next couple days. There's even a small chance for a brief, isolated tornado.

The other big weather story to develop next week will be the major heat.   This video goes over everything you need to know.

Here Comes Bill

As I mentioned on the air this weekend, it does not matter if we have a named storm or not.  The remnant rainfall of any tropical system can bring heavy and excessive rainfall to us.  Considering the heavy rainfall over western Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma, flooding concerns are enhanced.  The obvious flash flooding is a concern, but river flooding after the storm exits will also be a big concern, especially along the Arkansas River.  Eastern Oklahoma will receive more than 5'' of rainfall and much of that will drain down the river.

As mentioned here a couple days ago, brief tornadoes will be possible along and east of the track.  These are not your typical tornadoes and they can develop with little warning.  They are usually not too strong, but any tornado can cause injury or death.  We really need to watch this, especially across western Arkansas.  Once again, the threat is low, but it is there!  Eastern Arkansas will see little if any rainfall out of this, UNLESS the track shifts.

One more thing to watch... a miniature heat wave next week.  I think highs could get close to 100 degrees with heat index values much higher.  A heat advisory may be issued for the first time this year, but we'll cross that bridge when we get to it.  Let's get past "Bill" first.

Track of Bill will likely follow that black line, but there is uncertainty and it could shift a little west or east of that.  No matter what, you don't want to be east of the center.  That's the location of the heaviest rainfall and that puts western Arkansas at risk.  Also, a brief tornado or two will be possible across western Arkansas, but the BIGGEST threat will be flash flooding and river flooding.

GFS from WeatherBell.com indicates more than 4'' of rain possible west with little if any southeast through late Friday.  Notice the heaviest rainfall is along the track in eastern OK.  Some of that water will drain down the Arkansas River and river flooding will be an issue.

The NAM through Friday afternoon shows almost the same thing.  Heaviest rain north and west with little southeast.

The European model shows up to 5'' or more over eastern OK... NOT GOOD!!!  Western Arkansas could see 3-5'' if the Euro is correct.  Once again, little if any southeast.

The manual progs from the Weather Prediction Center indicates a swath of heavy rainfall over western and northwestern Arkansas with little if any east.  The forecast is coming together and there's a high degree in confidence at this point.

More Flooding Rainfall Possible As Tropics Heat Up

If you have not had the chance to watch the video below, I highly recommend it for more specifics. As of Monday morning, I don't have much in the way of changes.  The track of the tropical low is key in determining where the axis of heaviest rainfall sets up.  At this time, it appears the track will go right over eastern Oklahoma which puts western Arkansas in a favorable position for heavy, tropical rainfall.  If this verifies, eastern Arkansas will see very little compared to the west.    Any deviation in the track of the system will change who gets the heaviest rainfall.  If the heaviest rainfall stays over eastern Oklahoma, this will still cause river flooding issues in Arkansas.

I will once again mention the threat for tornadoes.  Honestly, it's not high at all, but it's there.  Even a weak tropical system can spawn a brief tornado or two so that must be watched.  The favored locations for that will be eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.  That too is subject to change depending on the track.  These brief spin-ups usually occur along and just east of the center of low pressure at the surface.

Hungry for some spaghetti?  That's what this is called "spaghetti plots".  Each line represents a computer model and its forecast track.  There is remarkable consensus on a landfall in SE Texas, then a recurve through eastern OK into Missouri.  This puts Arkansas on the eastern side of the circulation which is always the wettest.  The exact track still has to be pinned down to determine who gets the heaviest rainfall.  There is the potential for a sharp rainfall gradient from west to east.

The Weather Prediction Center really indicates where the track of the low will be located and the heavy rainfall associated with it.  Some of the rainfall could exceed 7 inches over eastern OK and NW AR.  This will cause flooding and even river flooding along the Arkansas River downstream.  Notice eastern Arkansas will not see much compared to the west as the system is steered by a large ridge located over the SE United States.

The Sunday night run of the European shows the axis of heaviest rainfall a little more to the west.

The GFS from weatherbell.com shows the heavy rain over western and northern Arkansas.  You can see both models have the same idea, but differ on the exact placement of the heavy rainfall.  This is why the forecast will have to be fine tuned in the coming days.
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Tropical Trouble

It all has to do with the track of the tropical low coming out of the Gulf of Mexico.  The further east it goes, the more rain we get.  The further west it goes, we should not see as much, but we don't escape with that scenario either.  If heavy rain falls in eastern Oklahoma, that could bring more river flooding.

One more thing to watch, tornadoes.  Yep, tornadoes.  While I do not expect any outbreak, we must watch this.   Tornadoes out of tropical systems are usually brief spin-ups.

This video goes over everything you need to know.

Let's Get Tropical!

A tribute to "Jackie Moon" and the upcoming weather pattern.  A deep fetch of tropical moisture will bring rain from time to time.  Also, it's possible an area of tropical low pressure will enhance rain chances and amounts.  The key word is "possible."  We'll have to see if it develops and where it tracks.  If this does develop, areas along and just east of the track could receive significant rainfall.  This video goes over timing and locations.

Special Message PLUS Very Active Weather Coming

Please watch for a few thoughts about the Arkansas Weather Blog PLUS, details on stormy weather this weekend into next week.

Summer Outlook 2015

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There's one thing you can count on in Arkansas every single year: heat and humidity.  The questions are, how hot and humid?  Spring weather helps us predict what will happen during the summer months, especially early in the season.  If the ground is loaded with moisture, the suns energy will focus on evaporation before it can efficiently heat the ground.   This will keep temperatures from getting out of hand early this summer, but it brings the potential for high heat index values with the humidity around.  Then there's the mosquito problem, but that's for another blog somewhere else.

The summers of 2010, 2011, and 2012 were nothing short of brutal!  Here are 100 degree days those years.

2010 - 21 days
2011 - 18 days
2012 - 29 days

The next year, 2013, was much better with only 4 days and last year (2014) had no 100 degree days.  If we can do that this year, it will be the first time we have put together back to back years without hitting 100 degrees since 1957-1958 and that's very significant for the obvious reasons and for another.

I plan on interviewing WeatherBell meteorologist Joe Bastardi about his summer forecast.  As you know, I have great respect for this guy.  He has done an incredible job with long range seasonal forecasting lately.  Nobody is ever perfect with that science, but some are much better than others and he has proven himself as someone you really need to listen to.  His track record can't be ignored.  He is comparing this climate cycle we're in to that of the late 1950s!  Here's something else to consider about that time in our weather history.  The spring of 1957 was the 3rd wettest spring on record for Little Rock.  Spring 2015 was just a couple tenths of an inch from breaking into the top 10 and only about 5 inches short of 1957.  So putting together pieces of the puzzle, it's possible to have another non 100 degree summer.

I feel very confident it won't happen in early summer (Meteorological summer June, July and August) due to the soil moisture.  However, if we dry out, we'll have the potential down the road and that's why I want to interview Joe.

Here are a few interesting summer stats for central Arkansas.

Average first 100 degree day: July 19th
Average last 100 degree day: August 15th

Average first 105 degree day: July 30th
Average last 105 degree day: August 11th.

Average number of 90 degree+ days: 69
Average number of 100 degree+ days: 7

Longest period WITHOUT a 100 degree day: July 31, 1887 to June 29th, 1894  (7 years, 11 months, and 28 days)

Average seasonal high temperature: 91.3 degrees
Average seasonal low temperature: 71.7 degrees
Average seasonal rainfall: 9.51 inches.

Remember, summer is defined as the months of June, July, and August.  NOAA thinks there's a good chance for below average temperatures.

NOAA thinks there's a good chance for above average Precip.