More Severe Weather And Flooding Likely

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11AM Monday Update... We still have several days left to go this May and the rainfall amounts are nothing short of staggering, especially across western Arkansas.  It's not only the wettest May in Fort Smith weather history, it's the wettest month EVER!  So far, Little Rock has had 6.01'' of rain and that's well short of breaking into the top 10.  So far this spring, Little Rock has received 19.54'' and that's getting close to breaking into the top 10 wettest springs on record.  I kinda doubt we do that.

Here are May rainfall amounts as of early Monday May 25th

Fort Smith 17.75''
Fayetteville 11.62''
Mt. Ida 11.18''
DeQueen 10.85''
Hot Springs 9.68''
North Little Rock 8.30''
Russellville 7.39''
Searcy 7.00''
Little Rock 6.01''
Texarkana 5.95''

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A very well defined area of low pressure aloft will move through the region tonight.  With so much moisture and instability in place, a round of severe storms with flooding rainfall will become likely, especially over western Arkansas.  With every drop of rain, new rainfall records are being established.  For instance, Fort Smith has had more than 16 inches of rain this month alone and it's the wettest month EVER for them.

This will only aggravate the flooding situation on rivers and streams.  If you live in a low lying area, PLEASE pay close attention to the forecast and conditions late today into tonight.  The flash flood watch continues and I have strong feeling the Storm Prediction Center will place much of Arkansas under a tornado watch later today.

Flooding and Severe Weather

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TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

I think western Arkansas is a rain magnet this year.  It would be nice to be able to share some with California.  The biggest threat over the next few days will be flooding, but there will also be the threat for some severe weather.  Damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two will be possible.

We have 2 rounds of rain and storms to deal with over the next 2 days.  There may be a break on Memorial Day for awhile.  This video goes over timing and specifics.

Early Season Heat Outlook and Tornado Season Winding Down?

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The past 60 days have been incredibly wet for most of Arkansas, especially western areas of the state.  I know the heavy rain is causing major problems for all the obvious reasons, but the more water in the ground, the less likely we'll hit 100 degrees early this summer.  The suns energy will focus on evaporation before it can be efficiently heat us to triple digit heat.  The prospects for more rainfall next week looks good and some of it could be heavy.

While severe weather can happen every month, our primary severe weather season is coming to an end soon and I hope I didn't just jinx it.  You must remember, we had a tornado outbreak at the very end of May a couple years ago and the state's 2nd biggest tornado outbreak occurred in early June in the 1910's.  So while statistically it's coming to an end, we still can have significant severe weather.

One more piece of good news... an area of high pressure will move in Thursday and Friday.  This will bring one of the coolest and driest starts to Riverfest in a long time.  We're talking about highs only near 70 with low humidity values.  Unfortunately, rain chances come back Sunday and especially Monday.

Forecast dewpoint values Thursday look low!  That should continue into Friday too with high temperatures only near 70 with rain chances less than 20 percent.  It's a much needed break because more rain will be possible next week.

Possible rainfall amounts Sunday into Monday morning could be around 1-2'' for western Arkansas.  Not good.

Rainfall amounts Monday morning into next Wednesday morning could be around 1-1.5'' more.  Again, not good.

60 day rainfall estimates by radar indicates most of the state has seen at least 10 inches with some western areas between 15 and 25 inches.

Statistically, May is the 2nd most active month for tornadoes with a sharp decrease by June.  We can't rule out tornadoes, but the chance does decrease soon.

Tornado Sirens

Before I get into the tornado siren issue which needs to be addressed by government leaders, I want to talk a little bit about Nashville, the home of the Scrappers.  Nashville is a very special place for many at Channel 7.  In the days between Anne Pressly's attack and her death, she was supposed to host the Daybreak Pep Rally in Nashville on a Friday morning.  I was asked to go in her place.  When I arrived, the stands were completely filled by 6AM and everyone was wearing a pink ribbon for Anne.  It was an overwhelming show of support and it's something I'll never forget.


Now onto an issue that must be talked about sooner than later, tornado sirens.  In my opinion, it's really sad this outdated method of warning people continues in its present form.  Do we keep them or modify them?  I remember debating this with meteorologist John Robinson.  I wanted to get rid of them and John strongly felt we need to keep them.  I think people rely too heavily on sirens for their primary source for tornado warnings.  They are only intended to warn people outdoors and as I explain below, the method of sounding the sirens is inconsistent throughout the state and needs major modifications.

The policy to sound the sirens is different for almost every county in Arkansas.  If you click on the tab on the top, "Tornado Policy Update", you will see the county policy as of a few years ago.  Some may have changed since I last asked Emergency Managers to send me their procedure.  If any Emergency Manager around the state is reading this, PLEASE let me know your policy. If your county is not listed, they didn't respond to my email.  Remember, I sent this several years ago.

This is not intended to criticize, but I feel those in control of sounding the sirens do not have adequate training in meteorology.  For example, there have been several instances the sirens have sounded in Saline county during a thunderstorm and NO tornado warning is in effect.  Just a few weeks ago, I was on the air covering tornado warnings over Conway and Van Buren counties and tornado sirens were going off in Vilonia.  They were not even close to the path of the possible tornado.  There have also been instances the sirens go off in west Little Rock when the tornado is east of the Little Rock airport and moving out of the county.  To be fair, the system only allows all sirens to sound instead of a select few.  These false alarms create the "boy who cried wolf" syndrome.

The fix?  First, I strongly feel if we're going to keep sirens, they must be controlled by a central agency within the state.  That could be either the National Weather Service or the Arkansas Department of Emergency Management.  Second, they all must be networked and automated.  Many years ago, the National Weather Service went from county based warnings to storm based warnings meaning only those areas within a county affected by the storm will get a warning instead of the entire county.    Those are the polygons you see on Channel 7 and on the National Weather Service web page.  However, some of the sirens to this day go off for an entire county instead of the real area in danger.  The system must be set up so that once a tornado warning is issued, only those sirens within the polygon are sounded.

It's important to note, no warning system is fool proof.  Some are much better than others and everyone MUST have a NOAA weather radio or another reliable way to receive warnings.  Changing the way sirens are sounded will help reduce the false alarm rate perceived by the public.  It will make hearing those sirens mean something.  If they go off, there's real danger.  But you must remember, they are only intended to warn those who are outdoors.  From my understanding, the big hurdle in modifying the system is $$$$$$$.

Thanks for reading my rant and please feel free to submit a comment below.

My Thoughts On The Nashville, Arkansas Tornado Tragedy.

The EF2 tornado which hit Nashville shortly after 11PM Sunday night is part of a problem we have been trying to solve for many, many years.

Dr. Walker Ashley, a meteorologist at Northern Illinois University, published researched several years ago about the number of fatalities in our region of the country.  He discovered there are more tornado deaths in Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee than in the traditionally known "tornado alley."  Why?  Here are his findings...

• Manufactured/mobile home density - The southeastern United States has the highest percentage of manufactured/mobile homes compared with any other region east of the Continental Divide. (According to the Storm Prediction Center, from 1999 through 2008, 49% of the tornado fatalities in the nation occurred in manufactured/mobile homes.)

• Nighttime tornadoes - The southeastern United States has a higher likelihood of killer tornadoes during the overnight hours.

Both of those points unfortunately likely came into play Sunday night in Nashville.

So what can be done to prevent this from ever happening again?  That's an easy question to answer, but difficult to execute.

A very large percentage of tornadoes come with enough warning for people to take action.  If you live in a mobile home and there's a tornado watch in effect, that's the time to take action... not when a warning is issued.  It's recommended you must really stay weather aware and have the ability to seek substantial shelter in the matter of only a few minutes.  

Getting that warning is another issue.  NEVER, NEVER rely on tornado sirens if you are indoors, especially at night.  You may never hear the sirens over the loud storm OR you could sleep right through it.  It's always recommended you have a NOAA weather radio of another reliable way to receive those tornado warnings.

I do not know the circumstances surrounding the 2 deaths in Nashville.  All I know is that two parents died protecting their small child from a tornado on Mother's Day.  Words can't describe the heartache family, friends, and that child will have forever.  All we can do is work to make sure it never happens again.

Dr. Walker Ashely's research showing the highest number of deaths from tornadoes over the southeast and mid south.

Here's the coverage of the tornado warning.

Sunday Severe and Flooding Potential

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TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

The biggest threat through Monday will be flash flooding.  Most of the state is under a flash flood watch.  We have at least 2 more rounds of significant rainfall and the 2nd one is coming tonight.

With several inches of rain already and more coming at night, it can be a recipe for huge problems.  At night, it's difficult to see flood waters until it's too late.  If water covers the road, remember to just turn around and find a different route.   Did you know flash flooding kills more people each year than tornadoes?  PLEASE don't become a statistic.

This video goes over specific timing and threats.

Multiple Rounds Of Rain and Some Severe Weather

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TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

The week long stretch of nice weather is coming to an end and we're going to pay the price for that.  We'll have several rounds of rain and thunderstorms through Monday.  Some of the rain will be heavy and some of the storms may be strong to severe.

I'm going to change things up a little bit on how we present the severe hail, wind, and tornado threat.  Over the past few weeks, I have tweeted maps out showing the percentage of wind, hail, and tornadoes within 25 miles of a given point.  There are two reasons I'm going to change this.  First, it sparked a little confusion on social media and I want to be able to communicate the threats in a simple way.  I am now categorizing the threats as low, medium, high, and extreme.  For example, if you see a medium threat for severe winds, that simply means where thunderstorms occur, there is a medium threat for severe winds (58 mph or greater).

This video goes over all the threats, timing, and more specifics. As I have been saying, I don't expect this to be an outbreak, but there will be rough weather ahead and you need to stay weather aware.

Severe Weather Possible Sunday

FOLLOW ON FACEBOOK: TODD YAKOUBIAN

TWITTER: KATV_WEATHER

After an unusually long period of quiet weather for this time of the year, it's going to come to an end.  While there will be a chance for a few showers and storms, especially for the western half of the state through Saturday, the greatest chance for severe storms will arrive later Sunday into Monday morning.  The exact timing and storm mode is subject to change.  This video goes over the newest data Wednesday afternoon from the European model.