5:50PM Saturday Update... We still have snow and sleet coming down in Harrison and we will not know who won until sometime Sunday. However, as of late Saturday afternoon, Harrison is now up to 8.5'' since December 1st. This means the 4 city total is now 24.5'', but will change. It's worth noting Erica Nazer did predict exactly 24.5''. We'll see what happens.
WINTER WEATHER CONTEST POST FROM SATURDAY MORNING. "It's going down to the wire this year. Who will win the Arkansas Weather Blog winter contest. The grand prize is a professional home weather station from Davis instruments. As of early Saturday morning, more snow has fallen at Harrison with a preliminary total of 22.5 inches. More possible through midnight so this can still change. As I write this at 8AM Saturday, Angel Holloway would win, BUT more snow possible." _____________________________________________________________
Saturday February 28th, 2015 afternoon blog post....
Next week could be one of those weeks we remember for a long, long time, IF THE MODELS ARE CORRECT!
There are signs winter will give a punch right in the gut Wednesday after several hours of spring-like temperatures and thunderstorms Tuesday. It could be a wild ride to say the least.
This is Saturday and it's several days away so forecasting specifics would be useless. While the data agrees winter will return again with a punch, thing can always change (my usual disclaimer).
After a round of storms Tuesday, the arctic air comes roaring back with a strong wave of low pressure moving along the front as it is situated to the south. Where that storm tracks, the depth of the cold air, and the precip types all are yet to be determined. This video goes over the data and the possibilities. Remember, what I show you is not a forecast, just model data. Enjoy.
It's going down to the wire this year. Who will win the Arkansas Weather Blog winter contest. The grand prize is a professional home weather station from Davis instruments.
As of early Saturday morning, more snow has fallen at Harrison with a preliminary total of 22.5 inches. More possible through midnight so this can still change.
As I write this at 8AM Saturday, Angel Holloway would win, BUT more snow possible.
The disturbance coming through Texas and Oklahoma this afternoon gives me a great opportunity to explain radar, how it works, and why snow may not reach the surface for some (virga). Check out this video blog for an explanation.
8PM UPDATE... Two things have changed this evening. Thanks to the WeatherNinja for checking my numbers. I was off a little. Also, the NWS updated the snow total in Little Rock from .9 to 1.6'' today. This means the total is 21.7'' and Bob Harmon guessed 21.6''. He is the front runner now at this point. HOWEVER, that can still change. The NWS could update snow totals today OR we could have a little more snow between now and the end of the month. STAY TUNED, THIS IS GOING DOWN TO THE WIRE.
I don't think our snow forecast could have worked out any better. We knew there would be an incredibly sharp cut off to the snow somewhere around the metro. I got 1'' in west Little Rock, North Little Rock got a trace, and Conway 0. Meanwhile Benton received between 2-3 inches. The largest snowfall amounts I can find were in Rison, Fordyce, and Pine Bluff at 6''.
Just a few weeks ago, it looked like we might not have a winner this winter, but now we will. The preliminary total between Little Rock, North Little Rock, Pine Bluff, and Harrison is 19.7 inches.
Again, this is preliminary and can change. We can still get a little snow at Harrison through the 28th and that can change the whole contest!
As of the 25th, WE HAVE A TIE! Remember, we play using the "Price Is Right" rules. Whoever is closest without going over wins. Both Brandon Ryan and Chris Crank guessed 19.6''.
Now we go to the tie breaker... add up the low temperatures at LR and NLR combined December through February. If it comes down to that, Chris Crank wins. He guessed 5307 and Brandon Ryan guessed 7112. The actual through the 24th is 5618.
I'm going to have the "WeatherNinja" double check my numbers so once again, the numbers above are not official yet.
Little Rock 4.4'' North Little Rock 3.6'' Pine Bluff 6'' Harrison 5.7''
Yep, Pine Bluff has had more snow during meteorological winter than Harrison! Never say never to Arkansas weather.
5PM Tuesday Update... Quick post to tell you about how sharp the snowfall gradient will be and how difficult it will be determining where that gradient sets up. Snowfall amounts could vary greatly over a very short distance. It's hypothetical for Conway to get none, Little Rock to get and inch or two and Pine Bluff gets 6 inches or even more. I'm not saying that's going to happen specifically, but just to illustrate how hard it will be to know exactly where this gradient sets up until the system arrives. We're very confident southern Arkansas will get snow, but the northern extent is in question. IT ALL HAS TO DO WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW.
THE MIDDAY RUN OF THE NAM HAS AN INCREDIBLE DIFFERENCE IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OVER A SHORT DISTANCE. IT HAS ALMOST NOTHING IN MAYFLOWER AND CONWAY WHILE IT BURIES JEFFERSON COUNTY WITH MORE THAN 6''. LOOK AT THAT GRADIENT OVER LITTLE ROCK! THIS IS JUST ONE MODEL. COULD IT BE RIGHT? SURE, BUT WHAT IF THE LOW TRACKS JUST 20-30 MILES NORTH? JUST A SMALL ADJUSTMENT MEANS A HUGE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HAVE AND HAVE NOTS. ALSO, THE NAM HAS A TENDENCY TO OVER FORECAST AMOUNTS LATELY.
AND THE GFS HAS THAT GRADIENT JUST A TAD FURTHER NORTH. IT'S A HUGE DIFFERENCE WHICH AFFECTS A MAJOR POPULATED AREA... CENTRAL ARKANSAS. STAY TUNED.
2PM Tuesday Update... The morning models continue a little northward trend with the NAM still the most aggressive and furthest north. I still think areas along and south of I-40 have the best chance for accumulating snowfall Wednesday. What about areas north of I-40? You still have a chance due to the uncertainty with the track of the low. There should be a heavy snow band and exactly where that sets up is also uncertain. For more information, read the post below. Here's the SCHOOL:CON index made early Tuesday afternoon.
This is going to be a very tricky forecast for Wednesday. The system coming through is more of a classic snow for Arkansas and the track of this area of low pressure is extremely critical. I can't stress that enough. This is a case where just a few miles can mean the difference between very little snow and several inches. It's a very difficult forecast at this point.
Let's rewind to last week for a moment. The models had this hitting Arkansas with a big snow. Then it took the system much further to the south. Starting with yesterday's data, its trending back to the north and is now bringing snow back to the state. What I just described has been the case for the past couple weeks. The storm is there in the long range, it trends south, then comes back north once within 48 hours. The NAM (North American Model) is leading the pack with this trend and the morning run of the GFS is catching up to it now. I expect the Euro to do the same.
The snow Monday was forecast by the NAM to be around 5'' for the metro and I'm glad I didn't go with that scenario, however, the NAM did a great job showing the system and its placement. So while I like the NAM, the amounts could be overdone a little.
As I alluded to above, the Wednesday storm system is much different than the Monday disturbance. This is a much stronger area of low pressure aloft. This large pocket of cold air in the upper levels will wipe out any mid level warming and that simply means most of the precipitation will fall in the form of snow. However, there could be a little sleet during the onset. Strong upward motion will cool the atmosphere and keep temperatures around freezing while it's snowing Wednesday.
The National Weather Service has a winter storm watch for the southern half of the state from Little Rock south. I completely agree with that and think many counties will turn into a warning. I also expect more counties to be added further north. At this time, I think everyone south of a Waldron to Greenbrier to West Memphis line will be favored for snow.
Timing? I think this starts early in the day for south Arkansas and mid morning for central Arkansas. I have more on the timing below.
The following maps are from WeatherBell Analytics. I'm mostly using the NAM. Remember, this will NOT be perfect. It's not a forecast. I'm just showing you model information below.
SIMULATED RADAR AT 9AM WEDNESDAY
NOON WEDNESDAY
3PM WEDNESDAY
6PM WEDNESDAY
PLEASE DO NOT TAKE THIS LITERALLY. IT'S ONLY A MODEL. THE NAM IS VERY AGGRESSIVE THAN OTHER MODELS WITH AMOUNTS. IT WAS WRONG ON AMOUNTS ON MONDAY TOO AND THEY WERE FAR LESS THAN IT FORECAST. I THINK THIS MODEL HAS THE RIGHT IDEA WITH PLACEMENT OF SNOW HOWEVER
This is the Tuesday morning run of the GFS. Now you see the forecasting problems with the track of the low. The GFS is much further south, BUT has trended north.
Just like yesterday (Sunday), this will be a quick round of moisture. However, there is a major difference compared to yesterday's system. You may remember I was concerned with surface temperatures yesterday staying above freezing for central and south Arkansas. Today, most of the area will stay below 32 and most of this should be snow with the exception of far southern Arkansas where a mix of sleet, freezing rain, and snow will be likely.
Also, this is NOT a major storm, but enough to cause even more travel issues. This video goes into the exact details with timing and amounts
10PM Sunday Update... I just read my 2:30PM update from earlier today and the forecast seems to have worked out quite well with the exception for areas south of the metro. There will still probably be some sleet mixed in as it ends tonight.
School administrators who still have classes scheduled Monday have a tough call to make Monday morning. There's another wave of moisture which will move across the state late in the morning into the afternoon. Once again, just like this last system, it will be a quick mover. The models, even at this stage of the game, differ on details. The NAM is very enthusiastic with snow while the GFS is ho-hum about it. The middle of the road approach might be best. The National Weather Service has gone ahead and continued the winter weather advisory into late Monday to account for this system
As I write this just before 10PM Sunday, the HRRR (which did a fantastic job with today's system) shows the moisture moving into the state late in the morning with the freezing line well south. This model only goes out 15 hours so we can't see the whole event just yet. At this time, I think the primary impact will be over western and southwestern Arkansas with decreasing amounts moving to the east. Once again, this is NOT a major storm. This is what I call a "low confidence" forecast since there are differences in the models. Here they are from weatherbell.com
Remember, this is a computer model and not a forecast. The GFS shows light accumulations between 6AM and noon Monday across south and southwest Arkansas.
Between noon and 6PM, the system decreases with only light amounts.
The NAM shows a good area of snow and much heavier than the GFS across western and central AR with freezing rain and sleet south. I have a hard time believing this will verify, but we'll watch it.
Here's my preliminary forecast for Monday. Please remember, this is low confidence since we do have model disagreement. With that said, I do believe this system will be a fast mover which would tend to limit amounts. _____________________________________________________________________________
2:30 PM Sunday Update....Most of the forecast is on track, but I have a few changes. I made a point to say this would quickly move through the state and it's going to end up being faster than I thought. I think most of the precipitation will be gone by midnight to 1AM Monday morning. This may make it easier for school administrators to make a call. Next concern are temperatures. Hi res models keep the 32 degree line north of the metro for quite awhile which may help limit amounts. We should start as plain rain, go to sleet, then eventually to snow before it ends. Again, this is NOT a major storm, but one which can cause slick roads. At this time, I think the highest amounts will be western Arkansas, especially the higher elevations. Amounts could reach 1-3'' with isolated amounts to 4''. Across much of the metro, I think we'll have rain to sleet then changing to snow. Total snow and sleet accumulations will be a dusting to 1''. I can not rule out isolated higher amounts around and just north and west of the immediate Little Rock area. South Arkansas will stay rain for awhile, but change to sleet and freezing rain. Amounts will not be heavy, but could cause slick spots. Northern Arkansas, you will see very little if anything. Maybe only a dusting in spots.
Winter wins the Oscar for biggest comeback in a single season. Ok, joking aside, another round of wintry weather is on the way. This will last for only a few hours this evening into early Monday morning and we are not talking about huge amounts. This is advisory criteria which means most amounts will be 3 inches or less. This video explains how much at your location.
There's still quite a bit of uncertainty as to the precip. type. I think for much of the metro, we'll have rain, then sleet, then at some point snow. Western Arkansas should have some sleet, then snow. Southern Arkansas will have rain changing to freezing rain and sleet. The snow chances there are not all that great, but there could be a little Monday. For a change, northern Arkansas will see little if any.
Once again, this video goes into great detail with an explanation of everything. Hope you enjoy
We have an incredibly active weather pattern with a couple snow chances over the next few days. I really think it will be light and quick moving, but it may be enough to slicken up roads for some portions of Arkansas. The other big story will be the bitterly cold air coming in Sunday night and Monday. We may stay in the 20s Monday!
Once again, this video is loaded with information and everything you need to know.
Saturday will be a very interesting day and a very difficult forecast. There will be a sharp boundary across the state with an amazing temperature contrast. On the warm side (south Arkansas), expect a few thunderstorms. The arctic air quickly comes back and we have yet another possible winter weather maker. This video goes over it all in detail.
6:55PM Thursday Update... below you will see the SCHOOL:CON index made late Thursday. I want to explain to everyone that this will NOT be like last Sunday night/Monday. Amounts will be much lighter. With the very cold air in place and a cold ground, light ice will cause travel concerns. Temperatures will warm above freezing throughout the day from southwest to northeast changing any ice to plain, cold rain.
SCHOOL:CON made late Thursday
KATV forecast made by Meteorologist Barry Brandt. Notice it changes to rain for most of the state, except the far northeast. They should eventually change, but it will happen much later Friday.
I hope everyone likes these video blogs. I think they allow me to go into more detail with these winter weather events. I will continue to write blogs as well, but I like this format with this wild winter weather we're having.
For those in the winter weather contest, good news! It looks like we will have a winner this season. Who? We just don't know yet. The contest ends at midnight on February 28th (March 1st). To see the numbers, click in the navigation bar above.
Much of the state is under a "winter storm watch". I feel most of this will be converted to a "winter weather advisory" and I explain in this video.
Also, we have thunderstorms in the forecast Saturday, then more winter weather chances. Social media is buzzing about another winter weather potential late next week and I go into that in the video. Lots of interesting weather over at least the next week. Enjoy this detailed video.
It doesn't get much busier than this in the world of weather as we have near record cold tonight, a winter storm watch, freezing rain, sleet, snow, and thunderstorms in the forecast.
We thought winter would skip over Arkansas this year. Mother Nature had a different plan. We have at least two winter weather chances this week with very cold air as well. One wave will be minor and the other will be more significant, but probably not as bad as what happened Sunday night and Monday morning. As usual, this video is full of specifics. Thanks again for coming to the Arkansas Weather Blog!
I think our forecast for this winter event worked out very well. We have at least 2 more chances for winter weather over the next 7 days. This video goes into great detail about those chances.
Can you believe it was 75 degrees Saturday? Never say never to Arkansas weather.
Yes, we're calling it an "Arkansas Slushie" as all types of precipitation (except hail) will be likely tonight into Monday. I don't expect this to get underway in the metro until around midnight. There's a high degree in confidence in the forecast for northern Arkansas, but it's lower further south. Where the freezing rain/sleet line sets up is still in question. It should be just south of Little Rock, but this can change.
It's important to remember, no winter weather forecast will ever be absolutely perfect. Just some are closer than others. It's a challenge and one of the reasons I'm a "weathergeek"
This video goes over threats, timing, and many more specifics. Thank you so much for coming here!
All types of precipitation will be possible across the state Sunday evening into Monday morning. What you receive will depend on the temperature profile from the surface up. Right now, we're expecting snow north, sleet central, and freezing rain south. THAT'S AN ARKANSAS SLUSHIE!!! This video goes into great detail on how this may unfold.
11:10AM Friday update... this video goes over the Friday morning data. As discussed here on "Arkansas Weather Live" Thursday night, I have doubts about the 2nd round precipitation Tuesday. Check out this in depth video
I'm going to jump ahead of Sunday night an talk about Tuesday. In yesterday's blog video I thought I was dreaming when I saw the models for Tuesday and it may turn out to be just that. On Arkansas Weather Live Thursday night, I told the WeatherNinja I had serious doubts the snow Tuesday would materialize and indeed the models are backing off on it big time. Cold, dry air from the north is pushing into the state rapidly at that time suppressing the storm to the south. Am I sold that will be what actually happens? No. I do not think the models will have a good handle on it for a couple days, but the trend is not our friend. I still think there could be a few snow flurries or snow showers, but no biggie. I really thought with the neutral to positive AO, the track would be further north and now it shoves the moisture well south. The jury is still out and I'll keep you updated.
Now onto Sunday and Monday. This will be a quick hitting area of moisture. Not a major storm, but possibly enough to cause slick areas on the roads. I think the primary precipitation type will be sleet with some light freezing rain south and light snow north. Remember, temperatures on Saturday will be well into the 60s. Despite these mild temperatures before the cold air arrives, I still think travel could be affected. At this time, it looks like much of the moisture will exit Monday morning. Again, the bottom line, not a major storm, but enough to cause problems. Tuesday can still change, but it's going the way I thought at this time.
The following maps are from Weatherbell
6PM Sunday, the GFS shows precip over the previous 6 hours. Sleet is overspreading many areas with the 32 degree line in red and hovering around the metro. Some freezing rain SW and west with light snow north
Between 6PM and midnight, there's a widespread wintry mix across the state. Most of this is light with maybe a few embedded areas of moderate precip. If this trends colder, maybe some snow for central Arkansas.
Between midnight and 6AM, the precip is moving out.
By mid to late morning, just a few lingering rain showers south with a pocket or two of freezing rain.
3:30PM Thursday update... This continues to be an evolving situation and there are a couple of noticeable changes I want to briefly discuss. First, it appears the precipitation may start a little earlier than expected. Sleet and freezing rain may overspread much of the Channel 7 viewing area between 6PM and midnight Sunday. Again, this is just what the models say today and timing can change. The cold air may be deep enough for light snow north and sleet central with some freezing rain south. IF the precip comes in early enough, that will make it easier for school administrators who have school Monday, IMO. Some schools are out already for Presidents Day.
Next, the Sunday night and Monday morning precip appears to be an initial wave with a possible pause in the precipitation until later Monday into Monday night. That's when the upper level dynamic come out and cools the entire atmosphere leading to all snow. The track of this and the placement of the snow is very much in question and I'll keep you updated.
It's a long video, but loaded with information once again. We're still 4-5 days out and there are many uncertainties. Yes, the models came back colder last night, but they can always trend warmer again. However, this is our best chance for significant winter weather this season. Snow lovers, there's hope!!!!!
Better late than never huh? Yes, it's going to get colder Thursday, but it will be even colder Sunday. The core of the weekend cold will be northeast of the state so there should be a significant temperature gradient from northeast to southwest. I think highs stay in the 20s northeast with lower 40s southwest.
On Monday, the models have been very consistent in developing a storm system to our west and throwing moisture on top of the cold air. The data looked very ominous Tuesday, but I was very, very hesitant about buying into that scenario and wanting to wait a little bit longer and look at new data. While things can still change (my usual disclaimer), I have two concerns and they are connected. First, the arctic air is retreating. You really need an east to northeast surface wind to keep cold, dry air in place at the surface as moisture overrides in the upper levels. With a retreating high, the surface winds will be out of the east and southeast. They could even start to come out of the south late Monday. That leads me to the "Arctic Oscillation Index" or "AO" for short. Most of the time, for significant wintry weather around here, you really need it to be negative. This suppresses the storm track to the south and cold air can really lock in place. Instead, the guidance says the AO will be neutral to even positive. Don't get me wrong, I still think there's a good chance for wintry weather. However, I think this is going to turn out to be a situation where a wintry mix (mostly ice) changes to a cold rain. The longer you're below freezing, the worse it will be. As stated yesterday (Tuesday), it's going to target northern Arkansas. I think western and central areas will have some icing, but the duration could be limited.
Once again, my usual disclaimer.... this is Arkansas, it's 5 days away, and it can change. I really hope the cold air can lock in and we can get some snow instead of ice. So let's watch this as I think there could be some travel trouble by the beginning of next week. Beyond this period, the cold shots keep on coming and winter rocks through the end of the month!
The following maps are from weatherbell.com
After a somewhat milder Saturday. (It will still be cool), the arctic boundary plunges south late Saturday into Sunday morning. You can see it clearly on this map entering north Arkansas by midnight Sunday morning.
Highs Sunday only in the 20s northeast closer to the core of the cold air with highs in the lower 40s southwest. The arctic air is firmly in place with the boundary near the I-10 corridor.
As promised, the pattern next week looks quite active and there's something to watch Monday, February 16th. Here's my usual disclaimer, it's too early to pin down any specifics. There could be an interaction between bitter arctic air and moisture. This video explains it all.
7:45PM Friday update... It's time to start focusing on the winter weather contest as it wraps up in a few short weeks. Remember, we're playing "Price Is Right Rules". The person who guesses the closest without going over wins. Right now, the total snowfall for the 4 cities is a whopping .2'' (Sarcasm). As of today, no one wins. If someone guessed "0", they would be in the lead. Remember, we still have a few weeks to go and maybe we'll get a good snow... MAYBE. What happens if we don't have a winner? The prize will be held and given away in the next contest.
If you want to see all the numbers, just click in the navigation bar above "2014-2015 Winter Contest".
Well above average temperatures will not last too long. This video goes over the next couple of weeks and shows you how it will feel more like winter again by this time next week. I also have help from a very special guest! Check it out!
The forecast for the very minor snow event over northern Arkansas worked out well. I'm very impressed with the performance of our new hi-res Futurecast. Our good snows never come from the north. You must have cold air in place or cold air moving in as a surface low tracks south of the state.
I want to thank you for the feedback in the previous blog post. It seems many want video blogs and a few like the written ones. I will continue to do both and that will hopefully keep everyone happy. I think a good snow for the entire state would be the best for raising every ones spirits.
The Pacific air I have been talking about will flood much of the western half of the country, including Arkansas this weekend, with warmer air. While I do think temperatures will be well above average, I'm concerned a few clouds may prevent temperatures from reaching their maximum potential. The models even show this at times with areas of cool in a sea of warmth. Regardless, the weekend will feature highs in the 60s and maybe even lower 70s. That enormous Pacific jet will bring almost 18 inches of rain to northern California into the Pacific Northwest. That's where we want a ridge to be in place to deliver cold air here. The models do relax that jet, and a ridge does build next week over that area. That will shut off the Pacific moisture and allow the jet to tap into colder Canadian and arctic air. It does cool down next week, but nothing drastic. I will watch next Thursday for a stronger cold front. The GFS is very strong with it and brings in well below average temperatures while the Euro only brings in readings which would be a little below average. Way too early to tell the strength of it.
Most of the following weather maps are courtesy of Weatherbell.
Surface temperature anomalies show much of the country will be well above average over the next 2-7 days. All the cold air is locked up in Alaska and Canada. Look how warm it is over the plains. That's due to downsloping off the mountains with that strong Pacific jet.
That Pacific jet will scream and 7 day rain totals could reach 18 inches. This may make news headlines.
In the 7-12 day period, surface temperatures will cool substantially over the eastern half of the country and warm in the western U.S. up to Alaska. That's the Pacific Jet buckling and ridging taping into colder arctic air. The cold air drains south and east, that's why we get colder.
11-16 day time period, when Alaska warms, we get cold and that's very evident here. Temperature anomalies are well below average east and central. Remember, ridging in the eastern Pacific/west coast is needed to tap into that colder air and that's what is happening here.
Highs Saturday afternoon area in the 60s.
Highs Sunday are in the 60s to near 70, but look at the cooler air south. That MIGHT be due to some cloud cover.
As stated above, the western ridge goes up next week allowing winter to return. The GFS here is more enthusiastic compared to the Euro for colder air. This is late next Thursday with an arctic boundary in the state and a huge contrast from north to south.
This is the GFS and it's much colder than the Euro next Friday the 13th. It only has highs in the low to mid 30s. That's quite a change from the 60s this weekend! It has everything to do with that jet stream changing configuration explained above.
I need your feedback. Do you like the videos I post or the written blogs? I really enjoy the videos since they are more conversational, but I tend to talk too long and I don't want to waste your time. Please let me know.
This video goes over the very, very minor snow event tonight PLUS what's ahead this weekend into the middle of the month. The Pacific Northwest is about to get blasted with heavy rain and that does have an indirect connection with our weather. I explain here. Hope you enjoy.
